Arab unrest: perspectives - XLII

Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz, 86, dies while King Abdullah, 87, remains in hospital at a time when there is growing Arab unrest in the Middle East and North Africa. The strength and message of the Arab Spring is so universal that many global analysts now draw a link between the spirit of the young people who drove the pro-democracy demonstrations in the Arab world with the wave of anti-world financial system protests on Wall Street in the US and elsewhere in the world.
The death of a key Saudi royal and King Abdullah's ill health seem to have led to creating a heightened sense of anxiety - if not alarm - in the House of Saud because the consequences of Arab Spring now have special resonance and meaning in the entire Arab world. The Middle East power brokers at the World Economic Forum in Amman, Jordan, have been seen making fervent appeals for a "Marshall Plan" to narrow the inequalities that led to the Arab Spring revolts against authoritarian regimes across the region.
Although, the kingdom's Allegiance Council formed by King Abdullah in 2006 to help oversee succession issues is expected to have already identified the successor to Saudi Crown Prince Sultan (he had been suffering from cancer of the colon since 2004), the Arab Spring is indeed a profoundly historic development in the Arab world that the kingdom cannot just sweep under the carpet. The challenge it poses to all authoritarian regimes speaks for itself and leaves no room for doubt, let alone complacency.
King Abdullah, the ruler of the oil-rich kingdom, was neither complacent, nor unduly sensitive. He provided refuge to Zine-al Abedin bin Ali of Tunisia after his government was toppled by pro-democracy protesters, although the latter had greatly disappointed him on several occasions, particularly during the 1991 Gulf War when he sided with Saddam Husain.
The Saudi king has been quite concerned at the popular revolts is a fact that manifested itself in a number of decisions that he took since the pro-democracy protests erupted in various Arab countries with a view to insulating the world's absolute monarchy from the protest wave. He was also quick to respond to the turmoil in neighboring Bahrain where Saudi troops under the aegis of Gulf Co-operation Council marched into Manama's streets to quell anti-government protests. His decision helped prevent Sunni-Shia tensions in the island state from spreading to the kingdom's eastern province close to the oil fields. He tried, though unsuccessfully, to broker a deal between Yemen's Ali Abdullah Saleh and the Opposition to restore stability in this highly important country of the Arabian Peninsula. His initiatives towards mending ties with a seemingly hostile Qatar royalty helped ease tensions between the two countries. These two neighbours together played a key role in the overthrow of Moammar Qadhafi of Libya.
On the domestic front too, King Abdullah was seen to be quite active. Soon after his return to his country in February after a three-month medical absence, the Saudi monarch announced benefits for Saudis worth $37 billion. Last month, he granted women the right to vote - but not before 2015. His decision, however, led to the question whether women will also get the right to drive as Saudi Arabia is the only country in the world where women are not allowed to drive automobiles. The prospects of a decision in this regard look quite bright. A Saudi woman spared lashing in a driving case recently is a case in point.
Although only men voted in the kingdom's second-ever elections and polling booths remained empty last Thursday, the kingdom did manage, albeit with little success, to send a strong message across that it is quite serious in opening up and that the delay in the second elections due in 2009 - the first elections were held in 2005 - was not an attempt to stop the spread of Arab Spring contagion.
Much before the Arab Spring coerced King Abdullah into introducing the path of reforms, it was in 1995 when King Fahd's deteriorating health led to grant Crown Prince Abdullah a wider range of authorities to enable him to undertake whatever reforms that he deemed appropriate for the ultra-conservative Saudi society. He started work - slowly and gradually - towards making the required changes. It was only after he became king that he began to initiate political reforms at the local level.
In Saudi Arabia, you can't say many things precisely the way you want to. For example, people can get into trouble for discussing "Arab Spring" or "popular revolts" publicly. But Khaled al-Maeena, editor in chief of the Arab News, has given voice to his feelings so eloquently and so effectively without trying to offend anyone in the monarchy. He has aptly described the enormity of the challenge the Arab youth have posed to their rulers.
Al Jazeera has quoted Maeena as saying that whosoever is chosen to succeed Abdullah would need to take into account "new faces" and a changing kingdom. "It is very important for those who follow now, and the leaders of Saudi Arabia, to take into account, not because of Arab springs or Arab winters, but to take into account that there is a young constituency with different wishes and goals," according to this highly respected journalist of the Arab world.