Chavez likely to miss Venezuela's bicentennial celebrations

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez makes no secret of his love for the spotlight: he always enjoys a good photo-op or the chance to deliver a long, hopefully amusing speech. And yet recent surgery for cancer appears likely to make him miss the bicentennial of Venezuela's independence from Spain on Tuesday.
Four days before the key date, there is no indication of when Chavez might return to Caracas, and his condition appears to be at least moderately serious, although Venezuelan authorities stress they are optimistic. Chavez, 56, has been away from Venezuela for almost a month. He travelled to Brazil on June 5, then visited Ecuador and eventually went to Cuba.
The long absence led to persistent rumours about his health, then to doubts about his ability to continue to exercise power, and eventually to concrete steps, including the postponement of a summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States. The meeting was originally scheduled to take place on the Venezuelan tourist island of Margarita on Tuesday, but no new date has been set.
In Cuba, renowned for its good doctors but which also offered Chavez a degree of privacy that he would most likely not have enjoyed at home, he said he hoped to have his left knee evaluated, after an injury that had led him to use a cane on his tour.
Chavez said he had always been reluctant to undergo routine check-ups and had generally paid little attention to his health, an attitude that he defined as a mistake. He thanked historic Cuban leader Fidel Castro for having spotted that something might be wrong beyond his knee. "He interrogated me almost like a doctor, I confessed almost like a patient," Chavez recalled.
According to Chavez's own account, Fidel Castro convinced him to undergo a more exhaustive check-up, which found first a pelvic abscess, leading to a first surgery on June 10, and then the discovery of cancer cells and a second operation. Communist Cuba has for decades taken immense pride in its doctors, which it has exported to many developing countries to improve care for the poor. Chavez thanked Cuban authorities for having put at his disposal "a legion" of such experts.
Chavez has been missing from the public scene for close to three weeks. When he did re-emerge, in a brief video with Castro that was aired Wednesday, he looked a lot thinner, although he appeared to be in a good mood. On Thursday, in his message to the Venezuelan people, two things stood out beyond his weight loss: Chavez uncharacteristically read out his speech and spoke for just 14 minutes.
This appears to back up Chavez's own comments that he is "getting out of the abyss," although full recovery may yet take a while. Venezuelan authorities have given no indication of just how long that may be, but they continue to stress that Chavez remains well in charge of the country from a distance.
There has been no formal transfer of power to Vice President Elias Jaua, who has insisted time and again in recent days that the president continues to supervise government activity and is making decisions from Cuba. Experts interpret the constitution as saying that a replacement will need to be appointed if the president is away for more than 90 days.
Chavez's health problems have unleashed uncertainty beyond his return. He is set to stand for re-election next year, and many point out that cancer may change that. In a heavily personal leadership, however, there is so far no natural heir to the popularity and the votes of the charismatic, outspoken and unorthodox Chavez. The president has done his best to reassure supporters. "We will live, and we will win: see you upon my return," he said. And yet doubts persist.