China's June, July soya imports seen lower on year

China, the world's largest soya importer, is expected to import 4.78 million tonnes of soyabean in July, down from an estimated 5.38 million tonnes in June, China's commerce ministry said in a statement seen on Tuesday. The estimate for July was 3.4 percent lower than the 4.95 million tonnes imported in July 2010 and the ministry's June figure was down 13 percent from 6.2 million tonnes a year ago, according to Reuters calculations.
Analysts expect imports in August and September to be still lower than the year-ago figure after Beijing's release of a large volume of state reserves and retail price controls on edible oils, aiming to tame food inflation, had hurt crushing margins.
The China National Grain and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC) expected August and September imports at about 4 million tonnes each month, both lower than 4.7 million tonnes and 4.6 million tonnes in the same period a year ago.
"Crushing margins have been negative for half a year. We would continue to see import figures lower than the year-ago period in coming months," said one industry official, who represents a group promoting US soyabean exports to China. "Livestock breeding is recovering, but not that quickly." China's soya purchases have recovered over the past month and crushers are actively buying soya cargoes for shipment in 2011/12 on expectations of better crushing margins in the third quarter of the year, when large pig stocks are likely to spur demand for soya meal, a feed ingredient, traders said.
China has booked about 10 cargoes for March and May shipment next year, said one analyst with CNGOIC, which was in addition to more than 10 South American cargoes booked earlier in the month, traders said. China's agriculture ministry said farmers had started to increase restocking of piglets since May after diseases killed many piglets late last year and early this one.
China bought 132,000 tonnes of US soyabeans on Monday for 2010/2011, the US Department of Agriculture said, and traders in the United States expected more purchases by China. The commerce ministry's figures, based on reports by buyers, fail to catch all shipments, but provide a reference to gauge supplies. Soya oil imports in July were seen at 155,000 tonnes, up from 136,609 tonnes estimated for June, while palm oil imports in July were expected at 151,296 tonnes, down from 269,412 tonnes for June, the ministry's figures showed.