Czarnikow on Friday forecast a global sugar surplus of 10.3 million tonnes in 2011/12 as growers increase plantings to take advantage of high prices, after a small deficit of 0.5 million tonnes in 2010/11. Global sugar production is forecast to rise 14.2 million tonnes during the 2011/12 season, the London-based merchant said in its latest monthly report.
Sugar merchant Czarnikow uses an aggregate of crop years in its production forecasts. During 2011/12, cane sugar production is expected to rise to a record 145.4 million tonnes from 135.8 million tonnes in 2010/11, while beet sugar output is expected to rise to a five-year high of 36.8 million tonnes, up 4.6 million.
"The 2011/12 season should deliver a sharp rise in global production as producers around the world respond to high sugar prices," the merchant said. "The larger size of the surplus and the broad spread of countries in which production is expected to grow significantly, strengthens the prospect that depleted global stocks will rise."
Sugar consumption is expected to grow in 2012 by 2 percent after three years of average annual growth of 1.1 percent, Czarnikow said. Czarnikow said sugar output in India, the world's number 2 producer after Brazil, this season will stand at 26.1 million tonnes, just 0.4 million tonnes below its previous prediction made in February.
"We continue to see prospects for an increase in production in India in the 2011/12 season," the merchant said. The 2010/11 Thai cane crush is still ongoing, with around 95 million tonnes of cane now processed representing a 35 percent increase year-on-year. Czarnikow is estimating that 2011/12 Thai sugar production will rise to 10.76 million tonnes, up just 0.5 million tonnes from this year.
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