Nato, Isaf may opt for central Asian routes for Afghan supplies

As both Pakistan and the United States flex their muscles in the aftermath of the surgical operation that killed bin Laden, the pros and cons of existing partnership are in question. Pakistan has threatened to disallow providing logistical facilities to Nato/ISAF in Afghanistan while the US has threatened aid cessation that includes around 1.5 billion dollars under the Kerry-Lugar bill and an equal amount under the Coalition Support Fund for military expenses on the war on terror per annum.
The Parliament passed a resolution that called for a revisit on the Pakistani administration's tacit approval for drone strikes as well as suspension of Nato/ISAF supplies in case the US carried out another attack without the knowledge of the Pakistani security forces. Pakistan remains the principal source of logistical support for the US-led allied forces in Afghanistan as it provides the shortest and most economical route. Almost 75 per cent of ammunition, vehicles, foodstuff and around 50 per cent of fuel for the Nato-ISAF forces fighting against the Taliban militia in Afghanistan were initially transported via Pakistan.
Frequent disruptions to the supply route, due to torching of convoys within Pakistan, has led to a reduction in total cargo, this was confirmed by Khyber Transport Association's President Shakeerullah Afridi. Since the time Nato and Isaf forces began to use Pakistan as a transit supply country, almost 1320 oil tankers and 140 containers have been torched. He said majority of victims have been sub-contractors with no direct links to Nato or Isaf.
Talking from Landi Kotal, near Pak-Afghan boarder, Afridi said that the transporters have refused to ply their trucks under threat from the Taliban and religious groups. According to data, the number of tankers carrying oil supplies to Afghanistan has declined to between 70 and 100 from 250 per day. Non-oil containers crossing the boarder are on average around 50 and their journey limited to day light hours. The death toll of transporters supplying to Nato forces reached 85 since 2002. In addition to this, 130 persons have lost their limbs and arms in different attacks on containers bound for Afghanistan.
A defence expert said that under this situation the region of the South Caucasus is becoming an increasingly viable option for the ISAF non-military supply routes to Afghanistan. Last year, transportation and logistic experts from Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan met in Baku to discuss facilitation of shipment of goods to the ISAF mission in Afghanistan through the Northern Distribution Network (NDN).
The expert said that there are two main routes that are being considered for the shipment of goods to Afghanistan: the first is Poti (Georgia) - Baku (Azerbaijan) - Aktau (Kazakhstan) - Navoi/Termez (Uzbekistan); and the second is Baku (Azerbaijan) -Turkmenbashi (Turkmenistan). The South Caucasus route has become a viable option because of the deteriorating security situation in Pakistan. The route is also important because of the potential unreliability of the Russian position on supply routes on its territory.
The first route in the NDN has a number of obstacles. Russia has been very ambitious in both the South Caucasus and Central Asia in terms of political-military affairs and supply routes to Afghanistan. The Russia-Georgia war in 2008 potentially placed the South Caucasus supply route in jeopardy. Any form of goods shipped by Nato vessels through the port of Poti and Batumi might be considered by Russia as an aggressive act directed at rearming Georgia and expanding Nato influence in the Black Sea region.
If Russia demonstrates its opposition to Georgia's involvement in ISAF supplies transiting the seaport of Poti, Azerbaijan will in turn also be more cautious in dealing with this issue. The second route within the NDN looks more promising. During the meeting in Baku, Azerbaijan made it clear that it would agree to the use of Baku for both the transit and export of goods to ISAF mission in Afghanistan. This means that Baku will serve as a stopping off point for ISAF-related cargoes and an exporter of locally produced goods. This route's key advantages are that it does not rely on Georgian ports, which would arouse Russian suspicions.
Among these routes, the air corridor through Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan is the most feasible. This route will be best suited if ISAF transport planes fly directly to Baku from Turkey or any other Nato member. This route is considered as superior to the Georgia-Azerbaijan-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan alternative, based on Moscow's discomfort over Nato-Georgia interactions, the prospect of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan providing a corridor for ISAF troops which circumvents Russia, and the limited options for non-littoral ships in the Black Sea. It has been learnt that Pakistan has demanded payment of $600 million as compensation charges for using the country's extensive road network to transport supplies to Afghanistan.