The Arab Revolution and Pakistan

The wave of protests that have reached tsunami levels in the Maghreb countries as well as parts of the Middle East, have been further fuelled by the autocratic rulers opting for strong-arm tactics against the protesters. The armed forces, as well as the law enforcement agencies, were deployed and given orders to shoot to kill, with the protesters angered enough to give the ultimate sacrifice: of their lives.
The trigger was domestic politics rather than foreign policy. Arab unrest began in Tunisia where a young man named Mohamed Bouazizi doused himself in gasoline and set himself on fire in the southern Tunisian city of Sidi Bouzid in protest against the confiscation of his market stall by the police, his sole source of income. The incident sparked off protests against repression and corruption and set off protest movements in Egypt, Yemen, Syria, Libya, Bahrain, Jordan, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, and Kuwait. The key triggers were therefore corruption, mismanagement and repression.
Pakistani analysts focus on corruption and mismanagement of the economy as triggers for Arab unrest, and argue with a great degree of veracity that there is overwhelming evidence that these twin evils exist in this country today. Corruption coupled with nepotism has been and continues to be a part of our lives accounting for concentrated wealth/influence in the hands of a few as well as a corrupt justice system (lower judiciary). Cases of multimillion dollar scams in Pakistan have recently (in the post-superior judiciary's independence from the executive) surfaced during the last three years in state owned entities (SOE) whose heads were appointed by the current Executive.
Pakistan Steel, Pakistan International, National Insurance Corporation Limited and the Hajj scandal to name a few account for millions of dollars of losses in just three years with widespread allegations of complicity of several federal ministers, including in one instance of the Prime Minister's son in these scams. That corruption in Pakistan is neither unique to this government nor indeed to politicians is well-established. However, the fact that politicians are more maligned than any other group may be attributable to the fact that it is our politicians who (i) promote and give extensions to senior bureaucrats and army personnel out of turn, (ii) are agreeable to becoming part of the King's party defined as supporting an army dictator, (iii) as components of the government are responsible for legislating accountability laws and compromising their implementation through flawed investigation of alleged scams, and (iv) fail to implement the court's decisions in letter and spirit.
Mismanagement in running the economy is also patently evident. Pakistan is a severely energy-deficient country and has been compelled to raise tariffs as an outcome of its decision to go on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme in 2008 without being able to reduce the number of hours of load shedding due to its own flawed policies. One such policy, the rental power projects, has elements of, at best mismanagement and at worst corruption. The government the third year running, is unable to raise tax collections by ending exemptions on powerful pressure groups while opting in favour of continuing to tax the already taxed, as is evident from the income tax surcharge levied through a presidential ordinance of March 15.
The government contends that it is unable to reduce current expenditure with the objective of reducing the budget deficit as it consists mainly of payment of interest, plus principal of past debt as it becomes due (public and foreign) as well as defence. This rationale can be challenged on both counts. Debt rose considerably during the last three years, mainly attributable to an unprecedented rise in domestic borrowing as bilaterals held back disbursement of pledged assistance due to continued poor governance. Assistance of over 1.5 billion dollars under the Kerry-Lugar bill has also not been disbursed due to Pakistan's failure to satisfy the (i) US on a range of concerns including governance and imposition of a tax on the rich as well as (ii) the toughening of our stance on CIA operatives in Pakistan. And the bulk of our annual outlay on defence in combating the war on terror is not paid for by our own resources but by the Coalition Support Fund (CSF) administered by the US. The fact that the CSF is periodically stalled is attributable again to lack of transparency, which has been further compromised after Musharrraf made a statement that the CSF money was diverted to the eastern border with India during his tenure.
High unemployment as well as inflation, coupled with serious law and order issues, plague the country today. So why hasn't the common man come out on the streets in protest like on the Arab streets? Three major ingredients of the Arab revolt are not in evidence in Pakistan: repression is not widespread with Balochistan, the only province where charges of repression are routinely levelled resulting in the rising incidents of armed insurrection, with objectives similar to the Arab rebels. In the rest of the country, the army is not ready to fire on the crowds of protesters (the reported reason for the success of Nawaz Sharif's long march that restored the judiciary), though there have been cases of periodic lathi charge/tear gas used on protesters in select cities. Second, the people of this country, excepting the Baloch nationalists and the Taliban dismissed as terrorists, are not ready to pay the ultimate sacrifice: of their lives. And finally we have elected the government that is in power, but which is seen as weak and the opposition, be it the PML (N) or be it the recalcitrant coalition partners, is seen as opportunistic rather than as one focused on acting as a check and balance on the government's exercise of power. Therefore, no one in parliament is engaged in mobilising public opinion to revolt with the objective of launching a movement and the focus is on reform. This could be why, even though there is considerable anger at government policies, it has not crystallised into any movement for revolt.
Is there any subject that can unite the Pakistani public to launch a movement that would compel the government to change its policies and reform? There is ample evidence of widespread anger against the United States that visibly strengthened subsequent to the killing of two Pakistanis in broad daylight by CIA operative/contractor Raymond Davis, deliberately, while a third was killed by a US consulate car backing up on the wrong side of the street, Davis' release, and drone strikes the same day that killed 44 tribals with no known affiliations (with the COAS condemning the attack and seeking an apology that was never tendered), the subsequent visit of ISI chief Shuja Pasha to the US and his return the same day, with reports that the US has refused to either remove its operatives from Pakistan or stop the drone strikes. Statements by US officials since Pasha's return are not supportive of claims that the Pakistanis won any concessions from the US other than blood money for Davis' release.
Imran Khan staged a sit-in in Peshawar over the weekend in protest against the drone strikes and has received considerable attention from the public with few detractors. President Zardari is not worried for one obvious reason: the establishment is on the same page on this issue.
Time will tell if the Imran Khan-led sit-in would compel the government and the establishment to revisit their foreign policy or whether a status quo would prevail. However there is ample evidence to suggest that any revisit would require a major change in the mindset of our government and establishment - a change that is not evident at this moment in time. The question in the end would be simple: can the government/establishment refuse around 2.5 billion dollars a year as grant assistance from the US? Not unless it dramatically changes its revenue and expenditure priorities and unfortunately there appears to be no blueprint to that effect.
What does the US think of the Muslim streets? ACRS report to Congress submitted December 31, 2001 stated "popular attitudes among Arabs and other Muslims in this region appear unfavourable toward the United States on various issues...As the lone remaining superpower, the United States has become a convenient target for discontent among much of the world's population. In the Middle East in particular, there is a tendency to blame the US-led globalisation for the region's economic ills, despite the failure of the Middle Eastern regimes themselves to adopt policies that would contribute toward greater economic growth." One may not agree with the report's assessment of the US being blameless, but one would certainly endorse the view that the fault is ours as we fail to adopt policies that would contribute towards greater economic growth, thereby forming the basis for an independent foreign policy.