THE RUPEE: mixed pattern

Divergent trend was witnessed on the currency market during the week ended on February 26, 2011. On the inter-bank market, the rupee lost 25 paisa in relation to dollar for buying at 85.65 and 26 paisa for selling at 85.70.
On the open market, however, the rupee rose by 15 paisa versus dollar for buying at 85.45 and 85.65. The rupee drifted lower against euro by 43 paisa for buying and selling at Rs 117.09 and Rs 117.59.
Most likely, the rupee may not maintain its current levels versus dollar in the absence of consistency in economic policy and unstable condition on the political front.
In the meantime, the country's foreign exchange crossed 17.5 billion dollars, which eased the supply of dollars.
The rupee drifted lower against the dollar on the inter-bank market. It, however, gained on the open market on Monday as importers were busy in forward deals, dealers said.
INTER-BANK MARKET RATES: On Monday, the rupee extended its week-end fall versus dollar, losing 12 paisa for buying and selling at 85.52 and 85.56.
On Tuesday, the rupee depicted no change against dollar for buying at 85.52 while it inched up by one paisa for selling at 85.55.
On Wednesday, the rupee gained 12 paisa in relation to dollar for buying at 85.40 and 11 paisa for selling at 85.44.
On Thursday, the rupee picked up five paisa in relation to dollar for buying at 85.35 and four paisa for selling at 85.40.
On Friday, the rupee was unmoved versus dollar for buying and selling at 85.35 and 85.40.
On Saturday, the rupee fell by 30 paisa in relation to dollar for buying and selling at 85.65 and 85.70.
OVERSEAS MARKET OUTLOOK: In the first session of Asia, the euro held firm near its highest level in more than 10 days after a European Central Bank official kept alive the prospect of the ECB hiking rates before the Fed.
But it lacked the vigour to break above key resistances after Germany's main ruling party suffered a crushing defeat at a regional election in the city-state of Hamburg on Sunday, making it harder for Chancellor Angela Merkel to pass federal legislation.
Indian rupee was at Rs 45.19 versus dollar, Malaysian ringgit at 3.0390, and Chinese yuan was available at 6.5750. In the second Asian trade, the dollar rose broadly and New Zealand dollar tumbled as mounting tension in the Middle East and a deadly earthquake in New Zealand drove investors to cut risk.
Investors were spooked by the unrest in Libya, where forces loyal to leader Muammar Gaddafi fought an increasingly bloody battle to keep the veteran leader in power. Indian rupee was at Rs 44.99 versus dollar, Malaysian ringgit at 3.0460 and Chinese yuan was available at 6.5768 in terms of dollar.
In the third Asian trade, euro edged higher after European Central Bank (ECB) officials stressed their readiness to raise interest rates to fight inflation, though it was expected to face resistance near $1.3750.
The euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.3692, having bounced back sharply from the previous day's intraday low of $1.3525.
Inter-bank buy/sell rates for taka against dollar on Wednesday. 71.19/71.26 (previous 71.18/71.18).
Indian rupee was trading at Rs 45.26 in relation to the dollar, Malaysian ringgit was available at 3.0485 in terms of the greenback and Chinese yuan was at 6.5798 versus the greenback.
In the fourth Asian trade, the Australian dollar advanced as figures showing a very strong outlook for business investment augured well for economic growth in coming years, keeping upward pressure on interest rates. In contrast, the New Zealand dollar was still weighed down by the devastating earthquake this week that has seen investors give up on any thought of rate hikes this year.
The Australian dollar gained three quarter of a cent to $1.0084, before steadying at around $1.0065.
Near-term support seen around $1.0013, with resistance at $1.0095. Interbank buy/sell rates for the taka against the dollar on Thursday. 71.26/71.29 (previous 71.19/71.26) Call Money Rates: 11.00-12.00 percent (previous 5.50-12.00 percent).
Indian rupee was trading at Rs 45.13 versus the dollar, Malaysian ringgit was available at 3.0510 in terms of the greenback and Chinese yuan was at 6.5736 in relation to the US currency.
In the final Asian trade, the euro edged closer to a key resistance against the dollar, supported by more inflation-fighting rhetoric from the European Central Bank, while the Swiss franc touched a new peak on fears the unrest in Libya may spread to other oil producers.
The dollar's fall, however, was tempered somewhat after oil prices came off of 2-1/2 year highs, and market players said the US currency could regain ground in the near-term if short dollar positions against the Swiss franc are unwound. The euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.3828, nearing resistance at $1.3862, a peak reached in early February.
Indian rupee was trading at Rs 45.47 in relation to the US currency, Malaysian ringgit was available at 3.0520 in terms of the greenback, Chinese yuan was trading at 6.5741 versus dollar.
At the week-end, the Swiss franc headed for its biggest two-week advance against the dollar in eight months and looked set to extend gains as turmoil in Libya and fears of contagion drove investors to safe haven assets.
The US dollar rebounded against euro and other currencies, helped by a retreat in oil prices after Saudi Arabia stepped up crude supply. The inverse relationship between greenback and oil has strengthened this week.
Uncertainty over the situation in the Middle East and Africa remains high as investors fear the uprising in Libya could spread to other oil-producing countries. A spike in energy prices could weigh on US consumer spending and crimp global economic growth.
OPEN MARKET RATES: On February 21, the rupee rose by 20 paisa in relation to dollar for buying and selling at 85.40 and 85.55. The rupee followed the same pattern in terms of euro, gaining 36 paisa for buying and selling at Rs 116.30 and Rs 116.80.
On February 22, the rupee held the overnight levels in relation to dollar for buying and selling at 85.40 and 85.55.
The rupee posted fresh gain of 84 paisa versus euro for buying and selling at Rs 115.46 and Rs 115.96.
On February 23, the rupee held the overnight levels in terms of the dollar for buying at 85.40 it, however, shed five paisa for selling at 85.60.
The rupee fell sharply against the euro, dipping Rs 1.22 for buying and selling at Rs 116.68 and Rs 117.18.
On February 24, the rupee shed five paisa against dollar for buying at 85.45 while, it showed no change for selling at 85.60.
The rupee continued its fall versus the euro, losing 56 paisa for buying and selling at Rs 117.24 and Rs 117.74.
On February 25, the rupee managed to gain five paisa against dollar for buying and selling at 85.40 and 85.55.
The rupee is still on the backward journey, losing 37 paisa in relation to euro for buying and selling at Rs 117.61 and Rs 118.11.
On February 26, the rupee shed five paisa against dollar for buying at 85.45 and it also came down after shedding 10 paisa for selling at 85.65. The rupee, however, recovered 52 paisa in relation to the euro for buying and selling at Rs 117.09 and Rs 117.59.