Handling ‘surplus’ power

“Congratulations Pakistan! You are free of load shedding,” read a government message yesterday. There are misleading statements, and then there is this. Credit to PML-N for achieving most of its power generation goals. Good job indeed. But equating the situation to “load shedding free” is nothing more than chest thumping, unless of course, 10 million of the 25 million electricity consumers were stop being called Pakistanis, effective from yesterday.

The fact that Pakistan is now producing surplus capacity, albeit just for the time being in winters deserves good press. But the very fact that even the availability of surplus power will keep over one-third of power feeders gasping for more and 10 million consumers continuing to witness load shedding, is the real crux of the problem.

Nearly all of Qesco, two-third of Pesco, half of Sepco, and one third of Iesco and Mepco, will continue to face load shedding as per norms. The overall system losses remain north of 18 percent, excluding KE, and no disco barring Iesco has a loss ratio of less than 10 percent. Yes, the better performing discos need to be rewarded, but this could clearly give it a Central and Northern Punjab centric touch to it.

That one-third of electricity feeders are believed to be responsible for over three-fourth of power line losses is a scary reality. The overall system losses (ex-KE) of 18.5 percent are on the higher side and there seems no respite to the situation. The other side of the story is the ailing transmission network, which cripples on almost everything, from heat to severe cold to smog and rain. Nepra has time and again brought the dire straits of the transition network to notice, but the pace to progress has been rather slow (Read: Moving from generation to transmission, published in today’s columns).

There is also a small matter of dealing with all the ‘surplus’ power. Recall that the capacity payment component of the power tariff is already on the higher side, and in case of excess power generation availability, it will have to be paid regardless of the actual off-take (Read: More power at what cost? published on November 29, 2017). Unless of course, Pakistan is looking to bring better balance to the trade mix, and export some megawatts.

The pace at which new power plants are coming, it increasingly appears Pakistan will have enough dependable generation capacity, come summers. The real deal is to ensure a viable chain from thereon. The challenges of circular debt are only going to increase with an inevitable increase in tariffs around the corner. If that meets an ailing transmission network and reluctant-to-improve discos – be prepared for a lot worse these summers.

And the summers won’t be any other summers; they will be the election month summers. Going downhill from the current situation is not an option, but it increasingly looks that way.

Here is hoping more coherence is found amongst the ministries, before the entire surplus power story turns sore.