Russia may have exportable grain surplus of 15 million tonnes

Russia may have an exportable grain surplus of 15 million tonnes in 2011/12 crop year, but will export less than that, as the government may want to keep stocks at home for safety, a powerful lobby said on Monday. "With a crop of 85 million tonnes, we may well be able to export up to 15 million tonnes of grain," Arkady Zlochevsky, president of the lobby, the Russian Grain Union told reporters.
"But the government may allow exports of 7 or 8 million tonnes, as it would want to keep larger stocks." The export prognosis is in line with other estimates from leading experts. The Agriculture Ministry forecasts a 2011/2012 harvest of 85-87 million tonnes after 60.9 million tonnes in the current agricultural year in which Russia was hit by its worst drought in over a century.
The former world No 3 wheat exporter harvested 97 million tonnes of grain in 2009 and 108 million tonnes in 2008. In the aftermath of the drought, it had to impose a ban on grain exports from August 15, 2010 to July 1, 2011.
"The expectations of 85 million tonne crop are quite feasible if the weather is favourable ... But if there is a disaster, then the situation will be worse," Zlochevsky said. He said that the state of winter crops is quite good practically in the whole of Russia due to abundant snow cover. The current slow thaw also favours the crops as it provides more soil moisture than an abrupt melting of the snow, when more water flows to rivers, rather than impregnating the soil.
"With a crop of 60.9 million tonnes, an additional 3 million hidden by farmers, 26.6 million tonnes of carry-over stocks, 3.6 million tonnes already exported and consumption of 70 million, we will have carry-over stocks of some 15 million tonnes by the end of the year," Zlochevsky said. The lobby estimates losses during storage at "a couple of hundred thousand tonnes", from 2.5 million tonnes a year ago."
"This year, the grain is expensive and therefore it is well looked after," he said. The lobby has revised its forecast for 2010/11 grain imports to "no more than 1.5 million tonnes" from 3.5 million tonnes. Zlochevsky said that Russia could well sow the 30 million hectares with spring grain. But yields may be lower than expected due to a shortage of modern machinery and money. To keep enough grain in Russia, the lobby has proposed restricting exports by quarterly quotas, but Zlochevsky said the plan had yet to be backed by the Agriculture Ministry.