Economic growth and rising interest rates are expected to boost Poland's zloty by 5 percent in the next 12 months, leading a rise in central European currencies, a Reuters poll of 40 analysts showed on Wednesday.
The median forecasts for their euro crosses show slightly stronger levels in the January 28-February 2 poll than in a survey a month ago as concern over the eurozone debt crisis has eased somewhat and economic recovery is gaining pace in the region.
The Czech crown and the Hungarian forint, however, are seen retreating in the next few months. The two currencies have led regional gains so far this year, firming by 3-4 percent against the euro. The crown has tested the 24 level near 27-month highs and the forint got near 268.70 which borders nine-month-high territory.
While dealers say the currencies can cross those key levels any time, analysts expect the crown weaker at 24.30 on the one- and three-month horizon, even though they forecast a rise to 23.9 in the next 12 months.
The forint is expected to retreat to 272.93 against the euro by the end of this month and to 275 by July, but it could firm to 270 in 12 months. A month ago the 12-month consensus was 272.
The analysts projected an unbroken gradual firming of the zloty to 3.9 versus the euro in one month, 3.87 in three months, 3.82 in six months and 3.75 in 12 months. Economists still project that the Romanian leu will firm by about 1 percent in the next 12 months to 4.2.
Hopes that Hungary will announce fiscal reforms soon have lifted the country's markets in the past weeks, but the reversal of earlier regional underweight positions is seen providing Hungarian assets with only a temporary cushion.
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