Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said it has raised its forecast of Argentina's 2011 soyabean crop by 2 million tonnes and of Brazil's harvest by 1 million tonnes after parched crops received welcome rain. Argentina's 2011 soyabean crop is likely to reach 48.0 million tonnes against 54.4 million tonnes in 2010, it said. Only on January 18 had Oil World warned the Argentine crop could fall to or below 46 million tonnes.
Brazil's 2011 crop could reach 68.5 million tonnes, close to the record 68.6 million tonnes in 2010 and up 1 million tonnes from Oil World's January estimate for Brazil. "In South America, soyabean production prospects have improved considerably," it said. "Above-normal rainfall was received in the past 10 days in most soyabean growing areas of Argentina, crop prospects have improved considerably."
Beneficial rain has also fallen in Brazil, it said. A Brazilian crop of 69.0 million tonnes or higher cannot be ruled out if weather remains favourable, it said. "The supply shortage in South America will not be as severe as anticipated a few weeks ago." it said. It added: "This could create some additional downward pressure on prices in the near term, primarily for soyabeans and soyameal, if the forecast additional rains actually arrive in South America."
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