Arabs doubt if Blair can succeed in Middle East

Arabs said on Thursday they doubted former British Prime Minister Tony Blair could succeed as Middle East peace envoy because of his unpopularity and because he is too close to Israel and the United States.
They said Blair had little credibility in the Middle East because he took part in the invasion of Iraq, opposed a ceasefire in Lebanon last year and failed to follow up on many promises to tackle the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The scepticism about Blair's mission as envoy for the international Quartet extended from opposition Islamists to former and current officials of conservative Arab governments nominally friendly towards the United States and Britain.
One exception was the Fatah movement of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, which is dependent on US and Israeli help in its conflict with the Hamas militants.
The Quartet - the United States, the European Union, Russia and the United Nations - appointed Blair on Wednesday, the day he stepped down after 10 years as British prime minister. The choice of Blair was seen in the Middle East as a present from US President George W. Bush for his years of support for Bush's policies in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East.
Former Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher said the choice was a mistake because of the perception that Blair is biased, arising from his closeness to the US administration.
"This was a way for the Americans to honour his friendship but I think they should have found a better way to honour him, a way where he would have a chance of success, and I honestly don't believe he has any chance of success," he told Reuters.
A senior Arab diplomat, who asked not to be named because of his position, said that in his new role Blair could in theory change his attitude and act as an honest broker.
But even if he did change, Blair would probably meet the same fate as former envoy James Wolfenssohn, he added. "Wolfenssohn was incredible but he was not allowed to play a role because of the policies adopted by Israel... Is Israel ready to take steps encouraging not only to Blair but also in the quest for peace? I have my doubts," he added.
Islamists in the Arab world said they had no expectation that Blair would make any contribution to Middle East peace. "His subservience to Bush and the fact what he walked in Bush's shadow do not augur well," said Mohamed Habib, deputy leader of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood movement.
"It is the US administration that acts and which does everything necessary for its own interest. Blair cannot be independent in his vision from what the US administration wants," he told Reuters.
An aide to Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas leader in Gaza and prime minister in the Palestinian government dismissed earlier this month, said the movement did not expect Blair to be even-handed. Hamas controls Gaza and faces isolation by Israel, the United States and the European Union. "He has always adopted the American and Israeli positions," added the aide, Ghazi Hamad.
Political analysts in Lebanon, North Africa and the Gulf were also sceptical about the prospects for Blair's endeavour.
"The appointment of Blair is a big mistake. He is not the ideal man for the peace process in the Middle East. His alliance with the United States ... will weaken his role as a mediator. I do not think he will succeed in his mission," said Algerian political analyst Ismail Maaref Ghalia.
Moroccan analyst Miloud Belkaid said Blair could use his new role to try to improve his reputation. "But the dynamics of the broader situation in the region are working against such an ambition, from Iraq to the Palestinian territories," he added.
"I don't know how he (Blair) is going to be able to compensate for his history towards many issues that he dealt with in the Arab world... I imagine that his mission is going to be difficult and complicated unless he takes some extraordinary steps, which I doubt," said Lebanese analyst Rafik Nasrallah.
Bahraini analyst and editor Mansoor Al Jamri said Blair's previous record would taint his chances of success. "He's going to be seen as a spokesperson for the US administration and the pro-Israeli lobbies... He has gone too far in his connections with the Jewish lobbies," he added.
A rare voice of optimism was that of Fatah negotiator Saeb Erekat. "The Palestinians wholeheartedly support Mr. Blair's appointment and hope that his appointment offers a genuine opportunity for peace," Erekat said. "Palestinians and Israelis do not need any more words or fanfare; we need action."