Soyabean futures lower

Soya futures at the Chicago Board of Trade closed lower on Tuesday on profit-taking after strong gains on Monday, traders said. Soya closed 1-1/4 to 3-3/4 cents per bushel lower, with July down 3-1/2 at $8.26-1/2 per bushel. New-crop November was down 3-1/4 at $8.60-1/4 per bushel.
Traders said some forecasts for near normal weather in the US Midwest also may have weighed on prices, but the eastern Midwest was still in need of rain, a factor that discouraged aggressive selling of soyabean futures.
Traders also said a decline of 1 percentage point in US soya condition ratings, reported by the US Agriculture Department late on Monday, added pressure because the trade was expecting a decline of 1 to 3 percentage points.
DTN Meteorlogix weather service on Tuesday said the central and eastern areas of the US Midwest crop region remained dry and the area was expected to be quite warm and dry for at least a week.
The uncertain weather patterns were keeping CBOT grain traders on edge at a time when big crops are needed to meet growing global demand. At least average growing weather is needed in the United States because US farmers slashed their soya sowings this year because of lofty corn prices and there are forecasts for the supply of soya to be halved by the end of the next (new-crop) marketing year (ending August 2008).
Global soya production in 2007/08 is likely to fall by about 6.5 million tonnes to 228.50 million because of a sharp cut in soya acreage in the United States, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecasts. USDA late on Monday said 70 percent of the US soya crop was in good to excellent condition, down from 71 percent a week.
Ninety-four percent of the crop had been planted, up from the 89 percent five-year average, the USDA said. Technical traders were watching the July contract trade above all key moving averages, with first support at its 20-day MA of $8.08-1/4.
The nine-day relative strength index for July closed on Tuesday at 63. Traders view an RSI of 70 or more as indicating an overbought market and 30 or less as an oversold market.
Soyameal futures closed down $1 to up $2 per ton, with July down $1 at $229.20 per ton. Soyaoil closed 0.14 to 0.20 cent per lb. lower, with July down 0.15 at 35.27 cents per lb. Soyaoil fell despite a recovery overnight in Malaysian palm oil futures. Traders in Kuala Lumpur said palm was up almost 5 percent after two days of sharp declines and concerns over tight supplies.
Oil World on Tuesday said palm oil prices were expected to fall further from their recent record highs as likely production and stocks are set to rise above previous expectations.