Snooze-fest in the market

The stock market is in doldrums and the animal spirits seem to have subsided for now. After a huge run up from November last year till the end of January, some consolidation was expected but market participants were not expecting the consolidation phase to be this painful. Instead of healthy exchange of hands, the volume has dried and uncertainty has shot up.

The result season has not helped either with the sentiment as many companies whose share prices had gained significantly, posted numbers which were below expectations. Even if the numbers were up to expectations then also investors opted to sell on results. The reason for this behaviour can be attributed to the fact over the last two years investors have been used to seeing double-digit growth in both topline and bottomline numbers. While this year earnings mostly grew on accounting treatments of tax reversals and rebates.

However, those companies which maintained their growth progress and gave out handsome pay-out saw their share prices held relatively well.

Contribution from the oil sector has also fared negatively for the KSE-100 index taking direct cue from the international crude oil prices. Index leader OGDC from its high of Rs170 has dropped to Rs146 per share and rest of the oil scrips such as PPL and PSO have seen similar trend.

Investors have opted to focus on theme based stocks as SNGP which has had a terrific run-up based on its recent results and laying of new pipeline in Punjab. Apart from that, steel and cement plays have seen some volumes but as these stocks witness fresh supply as soon as the stocks seem to gather strength.

With no new financing product on the horizon and the Panama case taking centre stage, volumes are expected to remain thin. Without clarity no investor commits capital and that also in a market which has had a decent rally over the last few months.

Technically speaking, the index is moving in a range where 48,100 level has turned into a very strong support. The index tried to close below this level multiple times, but every time the buyers came in. On the upside, whenever the index has tried to break-free from the 49,000 level, indecisiveness set back into the market which results in a doji formation or a sell-off comes. These are interesting times!