Australian grain: wheat harvest begins, with good yields

Harvesting of Australia's wheat crop is underway and producing good yields as the overall crop progresses well and heads for above-average production, analysts and traders said on Friday.
Harvesting has begun in central Queensland, which is turning in its first good crop since 2000/01. Australia's winter-grains crop harvest starts in the north and rolls south though the eastern and western cereal belt, with most of the crop coming off in November and December.
National wheat exporter AWB Ltd said on Friday it was holding its wheat crop forecast at 21-23 million tonnes.
"We're confident that we can meet our forecast," AWB spokesman Peter McBride said. Grains broker Paul Cochran of Fox Commodities said the crop was headed toward around 23 million tonnes, with AWB's forecast range right on the money.
Australian wheat crops have averaged 21.5 million tonnes over the past five years. This period includes both a record crop of 26.1 million tonnes in 2003/04 and low-level drought-affected production of 10.1 million tonnes in 2002/03.
"All indications are that spring in the majority of the wheat belt will produce sufficient rains," AWB's McBride said.
Central Queensland had produced good yields and protein, but southern Queensland desperately needed rain, he said.
"There's still some time there, but the sooner the rain comes the better," he said. Cochran estimated that losses in southern Queensland would be compensated for by good tonnages to the south, in western New South Wales.
AWB is eyeing good wheat yields in all growing states. The crop in Victoria had had good rains but still needed more in the Whimper and Male regions, McBride said.
The New South Wales crop was in a good position but, like the rest of the wheat belt, needed good spring rains. South Australia was also looking good, while the Western Australian crop was in a fairly good condition and headed toward producing very large tonnage's, despite some recent frost.
"It's hard to know the impact of that (frost) but they're still looking at a very large crop there," he said. Australian wheat prices have been reflecting the healthy state of the crop, putting in a relatively flat performance. Queensland feed-wheat prices have been poised to rally somewhat because of the dry weather, Cochran said.
But a slight firming of the market had been capped by the extra tonnages from New South Wales.
Australian Stock Exchange wheat futures are at around A$177 a tonne for milling wheat and A$187.50 for feed wheat, both for delivery next January, after a gradual decline since July.
Australia is the second largest wheat exporter in the world, after the United States and normally just ahead of Canada.