The US Agriculture Department issued the following summary for its monthly Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade report.
The entire report can be found at http://www.fas.usda.gov.
Global soyabean crush is projected to increase by 7.2 million tons in 2003/04 despite lower soyabean production. Through the first half of the marketing year the US has continued to crush and export soyabean at near last year's level, even with its drought-reduced crop.
Crush and US exports will fall dramatically during the second half of the marketing year as soyabean supplies are exhausted and US ending stocks are reduced to the lowest level since 1977.
While South American soyabean production is still at record levels, recent weather and disease problems have reduced projected end of September stocks. In addition, the lack of competition from the US will draw South American soyabean and meal supplies into the market more rapidly than normal this summer, further reducing South America's end of September stock levels.
As a result, South American exports and crush in the October March 2004/05 period are projected to be lower than they were this year.
The reduced availability of South American soyabean and products will force greater reliance on US supplies this fall. This is illustrated by the fact that US soyabean export sales for delivery after September 1st are nearly six times the level they were at this point two years ago.
World soyabean supplies are forecast to be tighter in 2003/04 compared to last month's estimate as total oilseed production was reduced to 338.3 million tons in April.
Forecast global soyabean production was reduced 5.5 million tons to 193.4 million tons. This is below the level reached in 2002/03 and is responsible, along with strong demand, for the higher soyabean prices currently being experienced.
Brazil's 2003/04-soyabean-production forecast was reduced 3.5 million tons to 56.0 million tons this month.
While higher than last season's 52.5 million tons, dry weather led to reduced yields in many production areas this year. Declines were also noted for Argentina, down 1.5 million tons to 35.0 million tons, and Paraguay, down 500,000 tons to 4.0 million tons.
Due to lower supplies, both soyabean export and crush forecasts were reduced this month.
World soyabean export volume is now expected to barely exceed the 2002/03 level at 62.7 million tons, 2.2 million tons below last month's forecast. Crush was also lowered 2.1 million tons this month to 172.9 million tons.
This is still a healthy increase over 2002/03 and reflects increased crush in South America and China.
Soyabean crush in Europe is expected to remain flat in 2003/04, while US crush is expected to decline nearly 4.0 million tons due to the reduced 2003 harvest.
Soyabean stocks will also be lower in 2003/04 due to the decline in soyabean production. Stocks are forecast to reach 33.0 million tons this year, down 2.9 million tons from the March forecast. Changes in April for other oilseeds were much smaller relative to soyabean.
Canada's repaired export forecast was reduced 100,000 tons with a compensating increase in crush for 2003/04.
The European repaired ending stock forecast for 2003/04 was also increased based on historical revisions in trade. For sunflowers, increased Argentine production, up 200,000 tons to 3.2 million tons in 2003/04, was distributed equally among exports and crush.
This partially offset a 400,000-ton decline in Russia's sunflowers export forecast for the current year. Much of the Russian sunflowers was destined for the European Union and required a compensating 400,000-ton decline in expected European imports, and a corresponding reduction in crush for 2003/04.
The global meal production forecast for April was reduced 2.2 million tons to 197.4 million tons due to a significant decline in soyabean crush this month. In addition to the lower soyabean meal production, down 1.7 million tons, production forecasts for cottonseed, repaired, fish and peanut meal were also lowered in April.
Despite the lower crush, forecast trade in oilseed meals was increased nearly 100,000 tons due to increased palm kernel meal exports.
The soyabean, cottonseed, and repaired meal trade forecasts were all reduced in April, while increases in sunflowers, fish, and peanut meal helped push global trade higher.
The global vegetable oil production forecast increased 194,000 tons in April as higher repaired, sunflowers, and peanut oil output more than offset reduced soyabean oil production.
Adjustments made to Indian oilseed extraction rates helped boost output of repaired, sunflowers, and peanut oil, as did increased crush of Canadian repaired and Russian sunflowers.
Indonesia also increased forecast 2003/04 vegetable oil trade this month in response to increased palm oil exports, most notably. With the increase in vegetable oil production, there was a corresponding increase in both consumption and ending stock forecasts in April.
Forecast global vegetable oil consumption was increased 366,000 tons to 100.6 million tons while the global 2003/04 ending stocks forecast rose nearly 200,000 tons to 6.4 million tons.
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