Brazil mid-crop cocoa output could yet surprise

SAO PAULO: Forecasts for Brazil's mid-crop cocoa harvest may have been too conservative, analyst Thomas Hartmann said, after a dip in output from some regions proved just a blip and as Bahia's output held steady.

"As the weekly data start to accumulate, it becomes increasingly probable that the initial forecasts for the Temporao, both for Bahia and for other producing states, have been exceedingly pessimistic," Hartmann said in a crop update.

The cumulative total for the now well-advanced mid-crop shows this year's harvest is now closing in on last year's total. The cumulative now stands 4 percent behind last year's pace after lagging by about 10 percent for several weeks.

The most recent forecasts for Bahia state alone, based on podecasters' views, pointed to a crop of 900,000-1.1 million bags. The cumulative total are already above the lower end of this range, at 957,311 bags.

Farm gate prices in Bahia were little changed over the last week, remaining in the 74-76 reais range (US$46.69-$47.95) per 15-kg aroba, but rose by another real by early this week.

Bahia's cocoa region should remain sunny with few clouds and intermittent showers with temperatures ranging between 18 and 28 Celsius, Hartmann said.

Copyright Reuters, 2011