SINGAPORE: US oil may retrace to $81.70 per barrel, as indicated by its wave pattern and a Fibonacci retracement analysis.
A five-wave cycle from the Sept. 30 high of $94.90 has not completed. The gain from the Oct. 16 low of $79.78 was driven by the fourth wave, which failed to extend above a resistance at $84.81, the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement on the fall from the Oct. 1 high of $92.96 to $79.78.
This wave will be totally reversed by a downward wave (5), which may have started at the Oct. 16 high of $84.83. The consolidation between $82.89, the 23.6 percent level, and $84.81 has been shaped into a small triangle, which may turn out to be a bearish pattern.
A break above $84.81 will cause a further gain to $86.37, the 50 percent retracement.
The views expressed are his own.
No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice.
Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.
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