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Markets

Rouble gets respite from fall, Gazprom outperforms

Published January 22, 2014 Updated January 22, 2014 08:37am

imageMOSCOW: Stronger oil prices and the end of the dollar's broad rally helped halt the rouble's recent decline on Wednesday, although analysts said the Russian currency remained under pressure.

The rouble had slid 2.4 percent against the greenback this month before Wednesday's opening, to its lowest level since June 2012.

At 0645 GMT, it was up 0.3 percent against the dollar at 33.85 and was firmer by 0.2 percent versus the euro at 45.91. That left the rouble nearly 0.3 percent higher against its dollar-euro basket, at 39.27.

Analysts said expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue withdrawing its massive monetary stimulus would keep pressure on the rouble, however, and on other emerging currencies which have recently fallen to new lows.

"Rouble looks to be one of the easiest victims supported by the mix of monetary and foreign exchange policies," analysts at VTB Capital wrote in a note.

"Some regulators (like Brazil and Turkey) are defending their currencies by raising rates and making constant interventions, while the (Russian) central bank is reducing its participation in the foreign exchange market, (and) the population's confidence in banks is shaken."

The central bank has committed to shifting its monetary policy focus to inflation-targeting and away from controlling the rouble's exchange rate by next year, allowing greater fluctuations in the currency's value.

The plans by the Finance Ministry to purchase $6 billion in the open market to replenish one of its wealth funds will add to pressure on the rouble, VTB analysts said.

Stocks moved lower, tracking Asian indexes down on weaker U.S. corporate earnings. Investors will be watching for the start of the World Economic Forum in Davos, traditionally a positive for Russia's equity markets.

Gazprom stocks fared better than the broad MICEX index for the second session in row on reports that the state is planning to increase pressure on state companies to pay out 25 percent of net income in dividends.

Gazprom was up 0.4 percent, compared with a overall MICEX decline of 0.3 percent to 1,499.9 points. The dollar-denominated RTS index was flat at 1,396 points.

Expectations for Russia-China negotiations on gas deliveries later in the day have also boosted the performance of Gazprom's shares, although some analysts warned that an imminent supply agreement may be unlikely.

"While there will be some noise from Beijing, we are not sure if the agreement is feasible in the next 10 days, having heard so many false alarms in the past," analysts at Sberbank Investment Research wrote in a note.

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