S.Africa April inflation edges up to 4.2 pct y/y

JOHANNESBURG: South Africa's targeted consumer inflation edged up slightly to 4.2 percent year-on-year in April from 4.1 percent in March, Statistics South Africa said on Tuesday.

Stats S.A. said headline CPI slowed to 0.3 percent month-on-month from 1.2 percent in March.

Economists surveyed by Reuters expected headline year-on-year inflation to accelerate to 4.4 percent, while slowing to 0.5 percent on a monthly basis.

ANALYST COMMENTS GEORGE GLYNOS, MANAGING DIRECTOR, ETM

"Pretty decent number. I think it will set the trend for what we'll see in the second half of this year where inflation surprises forecasters to the downside and why we believe rate hikes, if there are any, will be pushed out to well into 2012. Without fuel prices this number would have been quite a bit lower so it is really cost-push factors that are at play. The rest of the basket remains muted."

PETER ATTARD MONTALTO, EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIST, NOMURA

"April CPI comes in below even my own below-consensus forecast. We will have to look at the core print which may not have based as expected, and there is likely a little more pass-through in headline from recent stronger rand.

"This should perhaps temper some of the market hawkishness after SARB last week. Remember we are still looking for November hike. That said, markets will still be watching retail sales later today for more hints and there I'm looking for an above-consensus print."

MARKET REACTION

The rand was at 7.007 against the dollar at 0815 GMT from 6.997 before the data was released at 0800 GMT. The yield on the benchmark 2015 government bond eased to 7.7 percent from 7.74 percent.

BACKGROUND

-Inflation has slowly edged up since hitting a 5-year low of 3.2 percent in September last year. Rising food and fuel prices drove it to 4.1 percent in March.

- The central bank last week raised its inflation forecast and said inflation was likely to pierce its 3-6 percent target band briefly, peaking at 6.3 percent in the first quarter of 2012.

- The central bank said it would not hesitate to act on signs that inflation was consistently above the target band.

- The central bank has left its repo rate unchanged at 5.5 percent this year, after reducing it by 650 basis points between December 2008 and December 2010.