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Markets

Yields climb on robust US jobs report

Published July 5, 2019 Updated July 5, 2019 09:16pm

NEW YORK: US Treasury yields rose across the board on Friday, after data showed the world's largest economy created far more jobs than expected in June, suggesting that the Federal Reserve will not aggressively cut interest rates later this month.

Analysts said the strong jobs report should not stop the Fed from reducing interest rates at its July policy meeting, but it did take a 50-basis-point cut off the table.

US benchmark 10-year yields rose to a more than one-week high, while 2-year yields climbed to a two-week peak after the jobs report.

US 10-year yields posted their largest daily rise since early January, while yields on the 2-year had their highest daily gain in more than four years. For 30-year yields, Friday's rise was the largest since early October 2018.

Data showed US nonfarm payrolls increased by 224,000 jobs last month as government employment rose by the most in 10 months. The economy created only 72,000 jobs in May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls rising 160,000 in June.

But wage gain growth slowed in June, rising just 0.2pc, after gaining 0.3pc in May.

"The short end has abruptly abandoned any thought of a 50-basis-point rate cut this month and now greatly discounts anything other than an insurance cut of 25 basis points for the entire second half of the year," said Jim Vogel, interest rates strategist at FTN Financial in Memphis, Tennessee.

In afternoon trading, 10-year note yields rose to 2.068pc , a one-week peak, from 1.955pc late on Wednesday. They were last at 2.044pc. Ten-year yields hit 1.939pc on Wednesday, which was their lowest level since November 2016.

Yields on the 30-year bonds advanced to 2.546pc, from 2.471pc on Wednesday. At the short end of the curve, 2-year yields were up at 1.869pc, from Wednesday's 1.766pc. Earlier in the session, 2-year yields touched two-week highs of 1.888pc.

After the data, US rate futures have priced in just a 9.0pc chance the US central bank will lower interest rates by half a percentage point this month, down from 29pc on Wednesday, according to CME Group's FedWatch program.

Next week's spotlight will be on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who will deliver his semi-annual monetary report before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.

NatWest Markets, in a research note said, investors will be looking out for the Fed's reaction to the US-China trade truce and the June employment numbers to gauge the possibility and magnitude of an interest rate cut at the Fed's July meeting.

Copyright Reuters, 2019

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