Load-shedding challenge to persist in 2018: report

Pakistan will not be a power load-shedding free country by 2018, a deadline given by the incumbent government including Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif due to transmission and distribution constraints. This was the crux of a State of Industry report 2015-16 drafted by the power regulator ie. National Electric Power Regulatory Authority ( Nepra) which is expected to be released within a couple of weeks .
The government will, as it claims, be able to generate sufficient electricity by 2018 to meet country''s requirement but the companies would be unable to supply it to the consumers due to obsolete distribution and transmission systems and other financial constraints .
Projects including 1320MW coal-fired Port Qasim, Sahiwal coal, Neelum Jehlum hydropower project, Tarbela 4th Extension, and 3600 MW LNG-fired power plants at Bhiki, Balloki, and Haveli Bahadar Shah etc will come online on time with cumulative capacity of 10,000 MWs.
The installed capacity in 2017 will be 24000MW plus but the shortfall will hover around 3750 MW whereas shortfall in 2018 is estimated to be 500MW. According to analysts, 500 MW shortfall in demand and generation is translated into one hour load shedding across Pakistan except Karachi.
According to the PPIB, the country will see the launch of six power projects with a cumulative capacity of 4,907MW in the current calendar year.
"Installed capacity would be higher than the demand of NTDC system in 2017 and 2018 whereas the capability of power generation plants will be lower due to de-rating on account of aging, imprudent utility practices, seasonality and due to site conditions. With careful operations by the NPCC load shedding in May, June and July can be avoided in 2017 whereas in 2018 no load shedding is expected in the system. However, transmission and distribution constraints will not allow smooth supply of electricity to the consumers''," informed sources told Business Recorder.
The systems of four Discos ie Multan Electric Power Company (Mepco), Peshawar Electric Supply Company (Pesco), Hyderabad Electric Supply Company (Hesco), Sukkur Electric Supply Company (Sepco) and Quetta Electric Supply Company (Qesco) will be unable to transmit and distribute required electricity to their consumers due to system constraints.
Hesco, Sepco, Pesco and Qesco are unable to draw their allocated quotas due to system constraints. For instance, out of 220 transformers'' in Pesco, 124 are overloaded which is 56 per cent. Likewise, 67 per cent transfers are overloaded as feeders of 109 transformers have to be switched off to avoid tripping.
"It is a major issue which will not resolve in one year''s time. This needs investment, will and capability," the sources continued.
Nepra has allowed billions of rupees investment to the Discos but they do not invest because companies are still run from a centralised system, said an official on condition of anonymity.
Documents reveal that interruptions of the system, a reflection of maintenance of the system and addition of lines, increased from just 660,000 during FY-2010 to as much as 8,50,000 during FY 2014, 9,50,000 in FY 2015, again 850,000 during FY 2016 and a high of 420,000 during the first six months of the current financial year.
A comparison of damage to distribution transformers for Pepco network for the period of 2010-2017 reveals an increase in the damage rate from 10,000 transformers in FY-2010 with a loss of 1000 MVA in capacity to 17000 in FY 2016 and a 2000 MVA loss in capacity. 13500 transformers of 1500- MVA capacity were damaged in FY-2014, 16,500 transformers with 1900 MVA capacity in FY 2015 and the system has already suffered a loss of 85000 transformers of 1000 MVA capacity during the first two quarters of the current fiscal.