NEW YORK: US natural gas futures jumped about 4percent to a one-week high on Monday on near-record liquefied natural gas exports and a rise in global energy prices amid concerns over supply disruptions as the US-Israeli air war against Iran widened in the Middle East.
The increase in US gas futures came despite forecasts for warmer weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 12.2 cents, or 4.3percent, to USD2.981 per million British thermal units, putting the contract on track for its highest close since February 23. In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 17th day in a row, as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation’s biggest oil-producing basin.
Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and 26 times so far this year.
Waha prices have averaged 32 cents per mmBtu so far in 2026, compared with USD1.15 in 2025 and USD2.88 over the past five years (2021-2025).
In Northern California, next-day gas at the PG&E Citygate fell to a fresh record low of USD1.30 per mmBtu. That compares with the prior all-time low of USD1.30 on February 26 and averages of USD2.28 so far in 2026, USD3.42 in 2025, and USD5.47 over the past five years (2021-2025).
While in Southern California, spot gas at the SoCal Citygate fell to USD1.62 per mmBtu, its lowest since November 2024. That compares with averages of USD3.19 so far in 2026, USD3.60 in 2025, and USD5.71 over the past five years (2021-2025).
Average gas output in the Lower 48 states eased to 109.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, down from 109.2 bcfd in February, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Energy analysts projected a winter storm last week likely caused energy firms to pull more gas out of storage than usual for this time of year, knocking stockpiles down from near-normal levels during the week ended February 20 to about 2percent below normal for the week ended February 27.
But with meteorologists predicting weather across the country will remain mostly warmer than normal through March 17, analysts expect stockpiles to reach above-normal levels by mid-March.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 121.4 bcfd this week to 110.9 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG’s outlook on Friday.
Average gas flows to the nine large US LNG export plants eased to 18.6 bcfd so far in March, down from a record 18.7 bcfd in February.
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