NDMA warns of downpours, flood risk from today as monsoon death toll surpasses 780

The National Disaster Management Authority’s (NDMA) National Emergency Operations Centre (NEOC) has issued a comprehensive weather alert forecasting heavy rainfall and potential flooding across multiple regions of Pakistan from August 23 to 30, after more than 780 people have died across the nation in rain-related incidents this year.

According to the NEOC, three rain-bearing systems are expected to enter the country during this period, likely triggering widespread downpours and elevating flood risks in vulnerable areas.

An NDMA official shared a data with Business Recorder on Saturday, which showed that monsoon rains have so far claimed 785 lives across the country including that of 469 men, 117 women and 199 children.

From August 23 to 25, more torrential rains accompanied by strong winds are expected in Islamabad, Kashmir, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Punjab, with urban flooding feared in low-lying zones and landslides likely in hilly terrain. Northeastern Punjab districts — including Rawalpindi, Attock, Jhelum, Mianwali, Khushab, Sargodha, Sialkot, Gujrat, Hafizabad, and Mandi Bahauddin — are forecast to receive heavy rainfall.

Urban flooding is also anticipated in Lahore, Faisalabad, Multan, Gujranwala, Narowal, Talagang, and Chakwal.

In southern Punjab and adjoining areas, hill torrents may swell in Dera Ghazi Khan, Dera Ismail Khan, and Rajanpur due to heavy water flow. Meanwhile, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is expected to experience intense rainfall from August 23 to 27, with flash floods likely in streams and landslides threatening mountainous regions.

Torrential rains are forecast in Chitral, Dir, Swat, Shangla, Mansehra, Battagram, Abbottabad, Malakand, Peshawar, Charsadda, Nowshera, Mardan, Tank, Bannu, Lakki Marwat, and Dera Ismail Khan. Swabi, Mardan, Malakand, and Hazara divisions face a heightened risk of severe flooding.

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In Azad Jammu and Kashmir, rainfall may trigger landslides and flooding in Muzaffarabad, Rawalakot, Bagh, Haveli, Kotli, Mirpur, and Bhimber. Gilgit-Baltistan districts—including Gilgit, Skardu, Hunza, Ghizer, Diamer, Astore, Ghanche, and Shigar—are likely to receive heavy rains from August 23 to 27, with risks of flooding and landslides that could disrupt road connectivity in mountainous terrain.

From August 27 to 30, coastal Sindh districts—Karachi, Thatta, Sujawal, Badin, and Tharparkar—are expected to receive heavy downpours. Widespread rainfall is also forecast across interior Sindh, including Hyderabad, Jamshoro, Nawabshah, Dadu, Khairpur, Sukkur, Ghotki, Larkana, Jacobabad, Shikarpur, Kashmore, and Shaheed Benazirabad.

In Balochistan, heavy rains accompanied by strong winds are likely in Lasbela, Khuzdar, Awaran, Kalat, Gwadar, Turbat, Kech, and Panjgur.

Intermittent showers are forecast in Quetta, Ziarat, Zhob, Loralai, Barkhan, Musakhel, Dera Bugti, and Kohlu from August 24–25 and again from August 27–30. Flooding is feared in Dera Murad Jamali, Usta Muhammad, Dera Bugti, Awaran, Lasbela, Barkhan, Naseerabad, Kech, and Lehri due to anticipated heavy water flow.

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With reservoirs nearing full capacity, river flows are expected to rise significantly. The Indus River may surge to 500,000 cusecs at Taunsa, Guddu, and Kalabagh, while heavy rains could also swell the Ravi and Chenab rivers, posing flood risks to adjoining areas.

NDMA confirmed that it is actively monitoring relief operations in affected regions, with all relevant institutions on high alert to manage potential emergencies. Authorities have cautioned that further rainfall may trigger additional landslides and urged the public to remain vigilant and adopt safety measures.

Tourists have been advised to avoid travel to northern areas due to elevated risks of heavy rainfall and landslides.