Sterling rose against the dollar on Monday, as the greenback weakened after rallying on Friday on the back of a better-than-expected U.S. jobs report and investors eyed a spending plan by Britain’s government later this week.
The pound has been helped by a UK economy that has proved relatively resilient to global turbulence.
Investors will, however, be monitoring a spending review on Wednesday that will set government departments’ budgets up to 2029, covering most of the remainder of the Labour Party’s term in office, while concerns persist around Britain’s sovereign debt levels.
The pound gained about 0.4% to $1.3575.
It held steady against the euro, which was only marginally lower at 84.21 pence.
More upbeat business surveys and strong first-quarter GDP indicated the UK economy is recovering from a weak end to 2024, but the public remains impatient for improvements to living standards, finance minister Rachel Reeves said on Thursday.
Sterling holds its own against stronger dollar, trade optimism lends supports
This week’s April data on UK jobs, growth and industrial output will not show much, said Kit Juckes, chief FX strategist at Societe Generale.
“I think the economy is vulnerable. The economy will ultimately be sterling’s Achilles heel because we have no room for fiscal policy, not much economic momentum.”
However, decent pay rises on average across the economy have helped, he said.
“The UK economy is not growing, but there are people turning up in shops and bars because there’s some wage growth. And so I think the world is full of sterling bears who are getting frustrated.”
Markets effectively fully anticipate that the Bank of England will leave interest rates unchanged on June 19 when it announces the result of its next policy meeting, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Many of sterling’s gains this year have resulted from broad dollar weakness as investors factor in the risk that President Donald Trump’s erratic policymaking could result in a U.S. recession that might spill over to the rest of the world.
The pound has appreciated about 8% so far this year against the dollar.
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