Trump trade war has put US ‘close to a recession’: Dalio

NEW YORK: Ray Dalio, billionaire founder of one of the world’s largest hedge funds, said on Sunday that President Donald Trump’s trade war has brought the United States near to recession.

He was asked on NBC’s “Meet the Press” if he thought the world’s largest economy could dip into recession, usually understood as a meaningful decline in output, as a result of a trade war that has roiled global markets in recent weeks.

The Bridgewater Associates founder said, “I think that right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession.” The tariff plan includes duties on dozens of countries but the planned start dates for many of those changed abruptly last week, with a 90-day pause for goods from many places except China.

Dalio said this had been “very disruptive” and the tariffs’ impact was “like throwing rocks into the production system.”

He also expressed worry about the potential combined impact of US debt, US budget deficit and global political tension.

“We’re having profound changes in the world order… if you take tariffs, if you take debt, if you take the rising power challenging existing power… How that’s handled could produce something that is much worse than a recession.”

He invoked market crises of 1971 and 2008 and said the current situation “could be more severe than those if these other matters simultaneously occur,” he said.

Dalio founded Connecticut-based Bridge-water roughly 50 years ago and has 175 investors, including pension funds, foundations and central banks.