Syrian Kurdish groups on the back foot as power balance shifts

QAMISHLI, Syria/BEIRUT/ANKARA: With hostile Turkish-backed groups mobilising against them in Syria’s north, and Damascus ruled by a group friendly to Ankara, Syria’s main Kurdish factions are on the back foot as they seek to preserve political gains carved out during 13 years of war.

Part of a stateless ethnic group straddling Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Armenia and Syria, Kurds have so far been among the few winners of the Syrian conflict, controlling nearly a quarter of the country and leading a powerful armed group that is a key US ally in countering Islamic State.

But the power balance has tilted against them since the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) swept into Damascus this month, toppling President Bashar al-Assad, two analysts and a senior Western diplomat told Reuters.

The seismic change in Syria is expected to yield deeper Turkish sway just as a change of US administration is raising questions over how long Washington will keep backing the country’s Kurdish-led forces.

For Turkey, the Kurdish factions represent a national security threat. Ankara views them as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has been waging an insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984 and is deemed a terrorist group by Turkey, the United States and other powers.

The Syrian Kurdish groups “are in deep, deep trouble”, said Aron Lund, a fellow at Century International, a US-based think tank.

“The balance has shifted fundamentally in Syria to the advantage of Turkey-backed or Turkey-aligned factions, and Turkey seems determined to exploit this to the fullest.”

The shift has been reflected in renewed fighting for control of the north, where Turkey-backed armed groups known as the Syrian National Army (SNA) have made military advances against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

Fanar al-Kait, a senior official in the Kurdish-led regional administration, told Reuters that the ouster of Assad, whose Arab nationalist Baath Party oppressed Kurds for decades, presented a chance to stitch the fragmented country back together. He said the administration is ready for dialogue with Turkey, but the conflict in the north showed Ankara had “very bad intentions”.

“This will certainly push the region towards ... a new conflict,” he added.