EDITORIAL: French President Emanuel Macron’s gambit about putting NATO troops in Ukraine seems to have backfired rather badly, within and outside the alliance, as the US, UK and Germany distanced themselves from the idea even before Russian President Vladimir Putin was able to use it to his advantage and threaten “risk of nuclear war”; something he’s said before that he was “not bluffing” about if this red line is crossed. Macron has developed something of a reputation for making provocative statements about international geopolitics and diplomacy, something Paris officially defends as an exercise in “promoting out-of-the-box thinking”.
Yet this time, at least, his imagination seems to have got the better of him. France doesn’t have nearly enough soldiers or money to count, and the few countries with the kind of military and financial muscle that can make a difference on the ground are clearly in no mood to let Ukraine trigger a wider Russia-NATO war, especially since Moscow has made it amply clear that all options would then be on the table, which of course means the nuclear option.
If anything, Macron’s comments betray a desperation that has slowly been creeping into NATO ever since the Israeli genocide in Gaza snatched Washington’s focus, and its typical war-spending spree. And Ukraine has been paying the price in blood and territory as more and more of American aid and weaponry have been diverted towards killing helpless Palestinian women and children. Now, with neither Israel’s war nor American support for it looking to de-escalate anytime soon, the feeling that Ukraine has become a lost cause is finally sinking in. Hence, the provocative, out-of-the-box absurdity that has become typical of France under Macron.
Putin has been around for a long time and understands very well that he has got Ukraine, and therefore NATO, against the wall. The Russian economy is doing pretty well despite the sanctions – far from the collapse that the US and EU claimed would quickly come – and its forces are making visible gains inside Ukraine. And now the growing uncertainty in NATO has been further stoked by Macron’s smart idea. That is why the Russian strongman balanced his threat with an offer of talks, saying Russia was still “ready” for dialogue with the US on “strategic stability” issues.
He knows that the war has gone terribly off script for NATO, and the more they delay talks, the more money and hardware they will burn on the battleground. Besides, Washington’s focus is firmly shifted to catering to Israel’s demands in its own ugly war, which has effectively taken the sting out of all NATO business in Ukraine.
For France to try and complicate the picture at this delicate stage, when the only viable option seems peace talks, risks dragging the world back to the days when the US-USSR cold war threatened to erupt into an all out nuclear exchange – the dreaded MAD (mutually assured destruction) madness as the two superpowers spent much of the previous century trying to cut the other down.
These are very different times. And irresponsible western leaders must not be allowed to push their countries and others with them, into yet another senseless war; especially since this one would have a very real chance of ending with mushroom clouds all over the place.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2024
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