ISLAMABAD: The National Power Control Centre (NPCC), an arm of National Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC) has sought accurate power demand forecast during 2023 to make arrangements for imported fuel.
NPCC is performing the functions of annual energy planning and real-time operation/ dispatch of the National Power Grid under the provisions of the Nepra regulations/ grid-code and in compliance with Government policies as advised, from time to time. The most significant and basic input in the Annual Energy Planning process is the provision of a reasonably accurate monthly demand forecast for the upcoming year.
The sub code (Operation Code No.2) of Nepra approved grid code in vogue deals with demand forecast. The most relevant clauses of this sub-code are as follows: O.C.2.1.1. This sub code is concerning demand forecasting as related to operational timescales with the specific objective of ensuring that the highest levels of security of power supply are maintained for consumers at all times.
The scope of this sub-code applies to all user connected to the transmission system, i.e., generators, Distribution Companies and consumers directly connected to the transmission system of NTDC and other parties consuming power from the NTDC system.
O.C.2.1.2. In advance of real-time operations, demand forecasting shall be consolidated/ developed by NTDC on the basis of demand forecasts provided by individual users.
In view of the requirement of a reasonable accurate demand forecast for annual energy planning and in view of the reasonability for supplying this demand forecast to NTDC/ NPCC, NPCC has requested Power Planning and Monitoring Company (PPMC) to coordinate with all the Discos for provision of monthly demand forecast (January-December 2023) in the following order: (i) month-wise forecast and maximum drawl excluding AT&C and other constraints, etc. as per prescribed performa; and (ii) month-wise forecasted average and maximum demand including AT&C and other constraints, etc. as per performa.
NPCC’s General Manager, Sajjad Akhtar in a letter to Nepra, all Discos and other relevant authorities, stated that the result of the annual energy plan will further be utilized for the estimation of imported fuel (RLNG, RFO and imported coal) requirements and imported fuel projections will be communicated to Power Division for onward submission to Petroleum Division for the arrangement of required fuel.
According to NPCC, imported fuel procurement process has time constraints, as well as, logistics limitations while the RLNG fuel cannot be stored; therefore, any deviation in fuel consumption due to an overstated/ understated demand forecast will result in financial implications, as well as, operational constraints both for NPCC and SNGPL.
Therefore, a precise, accurate and realistic forecast figures be provided considering past/ prevailing trends and upcoming trends (i.e., Ramazan, special events, etc.); otherwise any financial implication due to deviation in fuel consumption will be on Disco’s account.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2022
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