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US wheat climbed on Friday, posting its first four-day winning streak since January, amid concerns that farmers may not be able to plant next month due to historic drought in the southern US Plains. But wheat pared its gains late while corn futures edged lower at the close, with traders seeking to limit risk ahead of the weekend.
Soybean futures ended firm for a second straight day of gains on support from higher crude oil, a weak dollar and worries over the size of the crop. On Thursday, prices rose after the government made a surprisingly large cut in its crop production forecast. "You are getting a little lift from the outside markets but you are not seeing a lot of buying," PFG Best analyst Tim Hannagan said.
"The downside is very limited today but they are cautious about getting in too heavy in case Monday brings another debacle," Hannagan said. A week ago, Standard & Poor's downgraded the United States' AAA debt rating, sending the equities market into a tailspin. The weakness spilled over into commodities markets. However, tight grain stocks and expectations of lower yields at harvest helped to prop up agricultural futures this week despite volatility in the stock market.
Chicago Board of Trade September wheat settled 1-1/4 cents higher at $7.02-1/2 per bushel even as most back months lost ground. Wheat gained 3.6 percent for the week, its best weekly performance in a month. CBOT November soybeans ended 3 cents higher at $13.34-3/4 per bushel while CBOT September corn eased 3/4 cent lower to $7.01-3/4. Corn gained 0.8 percent for the week while soybeans ended the weekly about unchanged.
"Guys are worried about yields coming down. You have to be aware of that but I'm not sure that you go and chase it," said Roy Huckabay, analyst at The Linn Group in Chicago. Corn volume on Friday was 8 percent higher than average during the past 30 days, but volume in soybeans and wheat was thin - 35 percent and 16 percent lower than normal respectively, according to Reuters data.
The US Agriculture Department, in its first survey-based crop production forecast on Thursday, slashed estimates for the harvest of each crop, pegging the soybean haul at 3.056 billion bushels, which was below the lowest trade guess. "My sense is that the market should be nervous about the supplies until we know more about the US crop size," said Anne Frick, oilseeds analyst at Jefferies Bache in New York.
USDA also slashed production for US spring wheat after rains in the northern US Plains and in the south-eastern Corn Belt delayed plantings of wheat, corn and soybeans. The seeding delays were followed by record-high temperatures last month in parts of the US Midwest, which was likely to reduce yields of the corn and soy crops. Meanwhile, a historic drought could prevent some farmers from planting wheat in the southern Plains hard red winter wheat belt. Concerns have also deepened in recent days that an unprecedented drought in the Plains states of Texas and Oklahoma will prevent farmers from planting hard red winter wheat. Seedings typically begin as early as September.

Copyright Reuters, 2011

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