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May 01, 2024 اردو ► PRINT EDITION ► BR MARKETS ► Dollar to PKR ►

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Surging external debt
Markets

Surging external debt

The total external debt and liabilities of Pakistan have risen to above $ 106 billion by the end of 2018-19. There was an increase of $11.1 billion during the year. However, this was somewhat smaller than the rise in the level of external debt and liabili
Updated 17 Sep, 2019 07:12am
Management of public finances
Print

Management of public finances

The budgetary debacle of 2018-19 has raised questions about the quality of financial management by senior officials of the Ministry of Finance. Not only is the budget deficit the largest since the 80s at 8.9 percent of the GDP but also the spillover from
Published 03 Sep, 2019 12:00am
2019-20 fiscal targets in IMF programme
Print

2019-20 fiscal targets in IMF programme

The year, 2018-19, has come to a close with a very different outcome than was originally anticipated. The budget for the year was presented initially in May 2018 by the outgoing PML(N) Government. This envisaged a budget deficit of 4.9 percent of the GDP,
Published 27 Aug, 2019 12:00am
Spate of bad news
Markets

Spate of bad news

The release of economic statistics recently by the FBS and the SBP has magnified concerns about the state of the economy and adverse short-run developments. These statistics relate to various aspects of the economy like the public finances, balance of pay
Published 20 Aug, 2019 12:00am
Spurt in inflation
Markets

Spurt in inflation

Inflation has hit a double-digit rate of 10.3 percent in July 2019. This has happened after a gap of over six years. The spurt in inflation has been happening since September 2018 when it started at 5.2 percent. It rose to 6.2 percent in December 2018, to
Published 06 Aug, 2019 12:00am
Pakistan's international rankings
Print

Pakistan's international rankings

Recent assessments by international agencies of Pakistan's relative position in South Asia generally place it at the bottom of the table, especially with regard to the rate of economic growth. The basic question is whether this is also the case in diverse
Published 30 Jul, 2019 12:00am
Faulty estimates
Print

Faulty estimates

The Pakistan Economic Survey [PES] for 2018-19 was released last month. This was immediately followed by the presentation of the Federal budget documents for 2019-20 to the National Assembly. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) continues to publish on
Published 16 Jul, 2019 12:00am
The stabilisation effort
Markets

The stabilisation effort

There have been many negative developments in the national economy in 2018-19. The headline statistic is, of course, the precipitous drop in the GDP growth rate to 3.3 percent from 5.5 percent last year. There are reasons to believe that the growth rate m
Published 02 Jul, 2019 12:00am
Budget 2019-20: Assessment of taxation proposals
Markets

Budget 2019-20: Assessment of taxation proposals

The Budget of 2019-20 contains over a hundred proposals spread over 30 pages related to the granting of tax reliefs, measures to generate additional tax revenues and improvements in the tax system, especially to reduce tax evasion. Seldom has one year's b
Published 25 Jun, 2019 12:00am
The forthcoming budget
Print

The forthcoming budget

The Federal budget for 2019-20 will be presented tomorrow in the Parliament. This budget has considerable significance. First, it will present the expected budgetary outcome for the on-going financial year, 2018-19. This will enable an assessment of the q
Published 10 Jun, 2019 12:00am
Outlook for 2019-20
Markets

Outlook for 2019-20

The year, 2018-19, is about to close with a marked slowdown in the economy. First estimates are that the GDP growth rate has plummeted to 3.3 percent as compared to 5.5 percent last year. Simultaneously, the average monthly rate of inflation has approache
Published 04 Jun, 2019 12:00am
Reducing the primary deficit
Print

Reducing the primary deficit

Contrary to the practice in previous IMF Programs with Pakistan, the emphasis in stabilization of public finances this time will not be on reduction in the overall budget deficit but on containment of the primary deficit. The objective will be the transfo
Published 28 May, 2019 12:00am
Financing of external payments
Markets

Financing of external payments

The outstanding external debt of Pakistan crossed the century mark early this year. It stands as of the end of March 2019 at $105.8 billion, according to the figures released recently by the SBP. This represents an increase in the stock of external debt o
Published 21 May, 2019 12:00am
The GDP growth rate
Markets

The GDP growth rate

The National Income Accounts Committee has endorsed the provisional GDP growth rate estimate by the PBS for 2018-19 at 3.3 percent and also the revised estimate of the growth rate of the economy in 2017-18 at 5.5 percent. The latter is somewhat down from
Published 14 May, 2019 12:00am
FBR's performance
Print

FBR's performance

The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) put in an exceptional performance in collecting tax revenues from 2012-13 to 2017-18. The average annual growth rate achieved was relatively high at 14 percent, leading to a near doubling of revenues over the five year p
Published 07 May, 2019 12:00am
IMF returns
Print

IMF returns

Finally and belatedly an IMF staff mission has arrived in Pakistan. This is after a gap of five months. The last time a mission was here was in November 2018. During the intervening period, there has been considerable vacillation by the government as to w
Published 30 Apr, 2019 12:00am
State of the economy
Markets

State of the economy

Information on many of the key macroeconomic variables has become available up to March 2019 and in some cases up to February 2019. Therefore, the trends in the national economy during the first three quarters of 2018-19 can now be analyzed.
Published 23 Apr, 2019 12:00am
Improving the price indices
Print

Improving the price indices

There has been an upsurge in the rate of inflation to almost a double-digit rate and some controversy over the measurement in the case of gas and electricity prices, in the presence of progressive tariffs. This has motivated the Ministry of Planning, the
Published 16 Apr, 2019 12:00am
Rising inflation
Markets

Rising inflation

The rate of inflation in Pakistan, as measured by the year-to-year change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has been rising steadily over the last one year. It stood at 3.2 percent in March 2018. A year later it has, more or less, trebled to 9.4 percent.
Published 09 Apr, 2019 12:00am
The deep and wide slowdown
Markets

The deep and wide slowdown

The economy of Pakistan has experienced a sharp slowdown in its GDP growth rate in four out of the last eighteen years. These were the years 2000-01, 2001-02, 2008-09 and 2009-10. The first two years saw a severe drought which badly affected agriculture,
Published 02 Apr, 2019 12:00am