SINGAPORE: Brent oil is expected to partially or totally reverse a rally from the June 22 low of $88.49 per barrel to the Sept. 14 high of $117.95 over the next three months.
The rally has been triggered by a support at $93.18, the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement on a long-term uptrend from $36.20 to $128.40, it is a reaction to the previous sharp fall from $128.40 and also a pullback towards a trendline ascending from $36.20.
Neither the reaction nor the pullback indicates the rally has resumed the preceding uptrend that developed from $36.20, indeed, they suggest the correction from $128.40 is incomplete.
This correction has only briefly pierced below $93.18. In terms of depth, it is not over as it's expected to reach into a range of $71.42 - $82.30, respectively the 61.8 percent and the 50 percent retracements.
In terms of duration, it is hardly acceptable for the correction to last only 81 trading sessions from March 1 to June 22, as it is too short, compared to the 821 trading sessions of 'a preceding uptrend from Dec. 24, 2008 to March 1.
The fall from $128.40 to $88.49 has adopted an impulsive wave mode, while the rise from $88.49 to $117.95 has been structured in five corrective waves.
These wave patterns indicate a bigger corrective wave cycle is still expanding, with a downward wave C unfolding towards its target zone of $87.46-$93.29, formed by the 61.8 percent and the 76.4 percent Fibonacci projection levels.
Resistance is at $117.95, a break above which will confirm an extension of the preceding uptrend towards $128.40.
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