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Markets

Rouble nods lower, oil, stocks pressured

Published Updated

roubles-MOSCOW: The rouble weakened on Friday, pressured by dividend-related demand for dollars and a decline in oil prices, while shares also slid but posted a fourth weekly gain.

By 1418 GMT, the rouble eased 0.6 percent to 31.85 versus the dollar , remaining in the middle of the range of 31.6-32.15 seen over the last two weeks. In the la st fi ve trading days the rouble, however, gained 0.8 percent.

"There is some balance of supply and demand while speculators are aware of bets ahead of important policy decisions," said Dmitry Novoselov at Nordea in Moscow, referring to steps by the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve to spur economies.

The ECB is considering setting a yield target on purchases under a new bond-buying plan but without making the levels public, central bank sources told Reuters on Thursday.

Versus the euro, the rouble firmed 0.1 percent to 39.84 and eased 0.2 percent to 35.45 against the euro-dollar basket, the central bank's main gauge of the currency market.

At the peak of dividend payout season, the rouble remained under pressure from foreign investors seeking to convert rouble incomes into dollars and euros and then to repatriate the funds.

On the flip side, ongoing month-end tax payments are bolstering the rouble by prompting export-focused companies to convert revenues in order to meet local liabilities.

Exporters, however, may have a limited effect on the rouble as the amount of conversions is set to be reduced due to the lower oil price in the past few months.

"Usually conversions of revenues lag for about two months, so what is now going on is a conversion of dollars received for relatively cheap June supplies," said a dealer at a major Russian bank in Moscow.

In June, Brent crude prices fell to their lowest since February 2011 of $88.5 per barrel.

Analysts at VTB Capital said that after the tax payment period, seasonal factors will be playing against the rouble.

"That's why we recommend using a decline in the dollar/rouble rate as an opportunity to open long dollar positions," they said in a note.

The stock market dipped lower on Friday after rallying overnight, with the dollar-based RTS index falling nearly one percent to 1,429.3 points.

The rouble-traded MICEX index was down 0.54 percent at 1,445.6, following its US and European peers, although still remained in an rising trend from mid-May.

"The US market was ready for a downside correction as indexes have touched the ceiling," said Alexander Zalko, head of institutional investors relations at Finam.

Shares in Russia's No. 2 gas producer Novatek performed better than the broader market, sliding 0.2 percent, after E.ON Russia said it had signed gas supply deals with the company and will not renew contracts with Gazprom. Gazprom shares dipped 0.6 percent.

Besides external developments, the market will be looking next week at earnings reports by Russia's No.1 lender Sberbank, telecoms operator Rostelecom, the country's second-biggest steel producer Severstal , and its top drugmaker Pharmstandard.

Copyright Reuters, 2012

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