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Markets

Italy's bond yields fall to 7-week low, Bund yields at one-month high

As 10-year Italian bond yields fell to their lowest in seven weeks, the gap over top-rated German Bund yields fell
26 May 2020
  • As 10-year Italian bond yields fell to their lowest in seven weeks, the gap over top-rated German Bund yields fell below 200 basis points for the first time since mid-April.
  • Italy has been a key beneficiary of a front loading of ECB asset purchases in recent weeks.

LONDON: Italy's 10-year bond yield fell to a seven-week low on Tuesday, following a rally in risk assets and as comments from a European Central Bank official boosted hopes of further stimulus soon.

Italian borrowing costs have fallen for seven straight days, pushed down sharply after a Franco-German proposal a week ago for a 500 billion euro recovery fund that would offer grants to those regions hit hardest by the coronavirus pandemic.

The latest rise in prices, pushing 10-year yields to as low as 1.53pc, came as world stocks rallied on hopes for a swift global economic recovery and comments from ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau boosted expectations of fresh stimulus at next week's ECB meeting.

As 10-year Italian bond yields fell to their lowest in seven weeks, the gap over top-rated German Bund yields fell below 200 basis points for the first time since mid-April.

"The positivity from the Franco-German fund is continuing to see the periphery supported, and that positivity will continue unless there is a major step-down by either France or Germany," said Henry Occleston, a rates strategist at Mizuho.

He noted that slow progress towards setting up the recovery fund meant hefty bond issuance from the likes of Spain and Italy in the meantime.

"That means it is critical for the ECB to expand its purchases there in order to stave off future sovereign debt crises. That is where Villeroy's comments feed into it, as providing further support for a expansion of periphery assets," Occleston said.

Speaking late on Monday, Villeroy said some euro zone central banks must be prepared to buy more bonds and others fewer to ensure the smooth transmission of monetary policy.

Nick Kounis, head of financial markets research at ABN AMRO, said Villeroy's comments suggested the ECB was willing to deviate more sharply from the capital key under its emergency bond buying programme.

Although the ECB buys government bonds according to each country's shareholding in the bank, the so-called capital key, the ECB has said it would be flexible and may deviate from this rule with its emergency bond purchases.

Italy has been a key beneficiary of a front loading of ECB asset purchases in recent weeks.

"The Banque de France Governor is an influential member of the Governing Council so the change in language needs to be taken seriously. We doubt that he is flying solo on this one," said Kounis.

As world stocks racked up strong gains and bond markets braced for a fresh wave of euro zone bond supply this week, yields on higher-rated bonds shot higher.

German 10 and 30-year bond yields rose to one-month highs with the 10-year Bund yield rising almost 6 bps to -0.42pc.