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UK GAS-Day-ahead down amid weak demand, oversupply and quiet trade

The system was oversupplied by 8 million cubic metres (mcm) with demand forecast at 173 mcm and flows at 182 mcm/da
20 May 2020
  • The system was oversupplied by 8 million cubic metres (mcm) with demand forecast at 173 mcm and flows at 182 mcm/day, National Grid data shows.
  • The oversupply is due to soft local distribution zone consumption and gas-for-power demand.

LONDON: British day-ahead wholesale gas declined amid oversupply, weak demand and quiet trade.

The day-ahead contract was 0.20 pence lower at 11.20 pence per therm at 0845 GMT.

The system was oversupplied by 8 million cubic metres (mcm) with demand forecast at 173 mcm and flows at 182 mcm/day, National Grid data shows.

The oversupply is due to soft local distribution zone consumption and gas-for-power demand.

Temperatures are well above the seasonal norm in parts of Britain but are expected to decline towards the weekend, before rising again early next week.

Peak wind generation is forecast at 5.2 gigawatts (GW) on Wednesday and Thusday, out of total metered capacity of 15 GW, Elexon data shows.

Overall, demand is still lower than usual due to the effects of lockdown restrictions on industrial activity.

"If demand remains depressed as storage reaches full capacity, the competition between pipeline and LNG supplies will intensify with the result being severe downward pressure on prices," said Jack Sharples at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

"Therefore, the risk of the European gas market repeating the American oil experience of supply overwhelming demand in the context of limited storage, resulting in the collapse of prices from already low levels, will most likely occur in Q3 2020," he added.

In the Dutch gas market, day-ahead gas price at the TTF hub inched up by 0.06 euro to 4.28 euros per megawatt hour.