US natural gas futures slipped on Monday from a two-week high on forecasts for less cold weather and heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Meteorologists projected the weather in the US Lower 48 states will turn from warmer than normal now to colder than normal from Jan. 19-28. That is warmer than Friday's outlook, which called for colder than normal weather after January 16.
Front-month gas futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) were down 3 cents, or 1.4%, to $2.172 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:52 a.m. EST (1452 GMT). On Friday, the contract settled at its highest since December 26.
Traders noted gas prices have dropped about 25% since hitting an eight-month high of $2.905 per mmBtu in early November due to milder-than-usual weather and expectations inventories will remain over the five-year average as near-record production enables utilities to leave more gas in storage, eliminating concerns of shortages and price spikes this winter.
That lack of worry about supplies this winter caused speculators last week to boost their short positions on the NYMEX to the highest since November 2015, which increased their net shorts on the NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchange to the highest on record, according to US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data going back to 2010.
Data provider Refinitiv projected average demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would jump to 138.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) next week from 113.9 bcfd this week. That, however, is lower than Friday's forecast of 140.4 bcfd for next week and 116.3 bcfd for this week.
Gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants held at a record high 8.8 bcfd on Sunday, the same as Saturday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 8.2 bcfd last week.
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