US natural gas futures fall for less heating demand

US natural gas futures fell over 2% on Wednesday on forecasts for less heating demand through the middle of December than previously expected. Front-month gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 5.5 cents, or 2.3%, to $2.386 per million British thermal units at 7:32 a.m. EST (1232 GMT).

On Tuesday, the contract rose 4.8%, the biggest daily percentage gain in over a month, on forecasts for colder weather over the next two weeks.

Meteorologists now forecast the weather will remain near normal levels until Dec. 10 and then turn colder than normal. That cold, however, is expected to be less chilly than previously predicted.

Still, with the seasonal cooling of the weather, data provider Refinitiv projected average gas demand in the US Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise to 121.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) next week from 115.7 bcfd this week.

But that is lower than Refinitiv's estimates on Tuesday of 123.0 bcfd for next week and 116.1 bcfd for this week. Gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants eased to 7.6 bcfd on Tuesday from 7.7 bcfd on Monday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 7.3 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 7.9 bcfd on November 28.

Pipeline flows to Mexico, meanwhile, slipped to 5.2 bcfd on Tuesday from 5.3 bcfd on Monday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 5.4 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 6.2 bcfd on September 18.

Analysts said utilities likely pulled just 29 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Nov. 29. That compares with a withdrawal of 62 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2014-18) average decline of 41 bcf.