HANOI: World coffee production in the current 2011/2012 crop year will fall 2.4 percent to nearly 131 million bags mainly due to lower production following adverse weather in key growing regions, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said.
The estimate by the London-based organisation in its March report seen by Reuters on Thursday is slightly higher than its earlier forecast in February.
The ICO's February report had estimated global production at 128.5 million bags, down 4.3 percent from the previous 2010/2011 season. One bag consists of 60 kg of coffee beans.
The expected fall could push up world coffee prices which closed up on Wednesday after a strong earthquake off Indonesia. May arabicas gained 1.4 percent to close at $1.8065 per lb and May robusta settled up 1.7 percent at $2,009 per tonne.
The ICO cut Indonesia's 2011/2012 production estimate to 8.25 million bags, down 9.6 percent from the previous season and an estimate of 9.2 million bags in its February report, citing bad weather.
"Adverse weather could also affect its crop in 2012/13," the ICO said.
Heavy rains have affected production in Indonesia this year, slowing the arrival of fresh beans from the ongoing harvest and leading to a high premium against London prices, traders said.
Brazil's production was kept unchanged at 43.48 million bags and Vietnam's output also stood static at 17.5 million bags in 2011/2012, the report said.
"In the case of crop year 2012/13, which begins in April, a substantial increase in production can be expected since coffee trees were in recovery during 2011/12," the ICO said about Brazil.
Vietnam, the world's top robusta producer, exported an estimated 2.7 million bags in February against 2.1 million bags shipped by Brazil, the ICO said.
"Vietnam's export performance may lead to a much higher production level than the estimated volume for crop year 2011/12," the report said. The country's coffee crop year lasts between October and September.
Peru, one of the world's leading producers, is expected to harvest 5.2 million bags in 2011/2012, up from 4 million bags in the previous year, the ICO said in a sharp upward revision from 3.98 million bags previously.
The ICO also revised up world consumption for calendar year 2010 to 135.8 million bags, a rise of 2.9 percent from 2009, from its earlier estimate of 135 million bags.
Consumption data for 2011 was not available yet but demand in developed markets is proving resilient, having grown 1.1 percent in the 10 years leading up to 2010, ICO's head Roberio Oliveira Silva said early last month.
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