Bore a well in any part of Sindh, and eight out of ten times the aquifer will spurt out saline water unusable for irrigation purposes. Thus, it is no surprise that of 2.2-2.5 million hectares of land cropped annually in the province, an overwhelming 86 percent is surface-water dependent, majority of which is supplied by vast network of canals built on Indus river.
But the availability of surface water has become increasingly erratic during the past decade, marked by years of semi-drought conditions dotted with periods of abundance – and at times, even flooding (Read: “Sindh’s water volatility”, published on August 19, 2019). This has been further exacerbated by increased demand-pressures on the IBIS (Indus Basin Irrigation System) by upper riparian regions, in part due to growing population and distorted water pricing that keeps the resource incredibly cheap, but equally a result of falling water tables and contamination of aquifers that has made tapping into groundwater an increasingly unattractive alternative in Punjab.
In this context, inadequate rainfall during 2018 prompted a public conversation about prioritizing resource allocation – largely centred on agriculture which is said to consume close to 95 percent of all freshwater in the country. While the narrative has revolved around generic themes of inefficient consumption practices and platitudes such as ‘more crop per drop’, holistic analysis that considers geographic, climatic, and food security perspectives appears to be missing.
For example, singular focus is laid on increasing yield of crops such as wheat – no doubt a laudable goal. After all, wheat is Sindh’s largest crop and is grown on nearly half of net sown area. And, at 3,300 kg per hectare, its yield is far below regional potential.
Yet, when it comes to water productivity, addressing the rabi crop’s yield is not the answer. All of autumn season crops put together consume no more than 25 percent of water drawn from the canal system annually, even though these are sown in off-monsoon season when rainfall has typically subsided.
The remainder three fourths is instead drawn from canal system for kharif crops, which also have the added advantage of coinciding with monsoon rainfall. But even there the conversation is dominated by truisms. For example, sugarcane, universally recognized to be a water-intensive crop, is widely imagined to be the bane of provincial water woes.
Yet, a look at decade-long cropping patterns between 2007-2016 in the province reveals that increased sugarcane production has had little to no bearing on province’s water availability. For one, Sindh’s sugarcane growth spurt has come from the northern-most district of Ghotki (Read:”Changing landscape of Sindh’s sugarcane”, published on August 09, 2019). Ghotki and adjoining northern districts, note, are supplied by feeder canals from Guddu Barrage.
In order to establish the impact of increased sugarcane cultivation on water withdrawals, BR Research delved into irrigation data published by statistics division of Sindh government. Between 2007-16, cane cultivation in regions irrigated by Guddu barrage system grew from 3,000 hectares to over 50,000 hectares. However, water withdrawals from the canal system showed no substantial growth, oscillating between period average of 5-6 million-acre feet.
In fact, as the illustration for Guddu Barrage shows, the canal withdrawals appear to more closely follow the peaks and troughs of rice cultivation, which not only is the largest kharif crop sown in the areas irrigated by the Guddu system but is also the largest kharif crop of the province.
Southern Sindh, on the other hand, took a complete 180-degree. The regions of Badin, Thatta, Sujawal, Hyderabad, Matiari that are irrigated by Kotri barrage system have historically been synonymous with province’s sugarcane belt and home to largest concentration of milling units (Read: “Anatomy of sugar milling in Sindh”, published on August 08, 2019). While sugarcane cultivation in the region remained stable during 2007-16, rice acreage kept pacing ahead, growing to over-one-and-third. The Kotri barrage illustration indicates that kharif season water withdrawals in the region supplied by Kotri barrage also grew by over 80 percent during this period.
Additional evidence comes from trends in cotton cultivation in the heart of IBIS - Sukkur barrage - and its irrigated regions of central and eastern Sindh. Cotton, and not rice or sugarcane, rules the day in central Sindh due to high yield achieved in the area. Canal withdrawals from the barrage, although highest in the province due to sheer scale and size of barrage and its network, showed no substantive growth spurt during the period, while moving in tandem with total cotton acreage.
This connects back to the earlier point made about yield. Not only does the province grow high-quality basmati, Irri-9, and Irri-6 rice varieties, its yield is competitive with the rice bowl of Gujranwala, and regional competitor India. Unlike sugarcane and cotton, Pakistan’s rice is also export competitive with up to half of domestic production exported, and growers in Sindh have the added advantage of proximity to port.
This is not to downplay the severity of province’s freshwater shortage; but to insist that those in policy circle need to widen their lens and make a business case to counter the challenge.
If rice is the thirstiest of all major crops, policymakers will be well-advised to avoid missing the mountain for the molehill by instead remaining fixated on sugarcane. The criticism on sugarcane is well-intentioned considering the excess production, fiscal cost in shape of subsidies and lack of export competitiveness. But ignoring data for agenda-pushing on sugarcane will not solve Sindh’s water troubles.
Source: Kharif season canal withdrawals; rice, sugarcane & cotton area under cultivation as per Annual Development Statistics of Sindh 2009-2017. In absence of command region-wise data, irrigation networks defined as follows: Guddu Barrage – Kashmore, Shikarpur, Jaccobabad, Ghotki; Sukkur Barrage – Khairpur, Sukkur, Naushero Feroze, Nawabshah. Larkana, K.S. Kot, Sanghar, Mirpurkhas, Dadu; Kotri Barrage – Hyderabad, Matiari, Tando Allahyar, TM Khan, Badin, Thatta & Sujawal. Regions excluded: Jamshoro, Umerkot, Tharparkar, & Karachi for various reasons incl. dryland/rainfed farming, saline groundwater dependent irrigation and/or fed by canals other than from barrages under discussion. Author’s definition based on secondary research & is open to feedback/dispute.
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