SINGAPORE: CBOT September wheat may break a support at $5.01-3/4 per bushel, and fall into a range of $4.86 to $4.94-3/4, driven by a wave c.
This wave is capable of travelling into the range of $4.72-1/4 to $4.94-3/4. The moderate bounce triggered by the support could have ended around $5.08-3/4.
The bounce looks like a weak pullback towards a rising trendline. The break below this line signals a reversal of the uptrend from the May 13 low of $4.27-1/4.
Strategically, a fall to $5.01 could confirm a break below $5.01-3/4 and the target at $4.94-3/4. A break above $5.08-3/4 may lead to a gain to $5.17-1/2.
On the daily chart, another retracement analysis on the downtrend from $6.24-1/4 to $4.27-1/4 reveals a support at $5.02-1/2, the 38.2% level, which does not look to hold.
A break below $5.01-3/4 (hourly chart) could confirm a head-and-shoulders, which indicates a target around $4.40.
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** Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. The views expressed are his own.
No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses. **
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