Readers know this column has an interest in following the US presidential campaigns, for what happens in DC still has an impact on policymaking here. So it was kind of disappointing to see that Donald Trump’s main challenger, Joe Biden, came out badly bruised after the first debate of the Democratic presidential nomination last Thursday. (For a background, read: “Uncle Biden and Pakistan,” published May 28, 2019). More alarmingly, the first debate seems to have pushed the Democratic Party further to the left.
So large is the number of Democratic candidates that the host network had to conduct the debate over two nights. Standing among a crowd of ten candidates, one couldn’t fault Uncle Biden, who is way ahead in opinion polls, for thinking he could coast to the end without trouble. He made no gaffes – remarkable! But an inert approach left the Veep crumbling when he was attacked on his handling of race relations.
Biden may want to move on and focus on the future, but the past isn’t leaving him. The debate landed a few jabs on this bipartisan figure in an era when other candidates are more eager to rouse the base. Will the lackluster debate performance cost Biden? One poll conducted after the debate showed Biden losing ground, but he was still leading the pack with the support of about a third of voters among 24 candidates.
Among the debaters who did rather well were senators Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris. However, neither of them is considered a “safe candidate” to defeat Trump next year. With their safest bet (Biden) looking drained, the Democrats’ 2020 prospects took another blow when a few low-polling candidates forced other contestants to acquiesce to radical positions on immigration, healthcare and taxes.
This primary was to be about Democrats searching for their soul; but it is turning out that they may end up losing the electorate in the process. One commentator noted that Democratic positions – such as giving healthcare to illegal immigrants, de-criminalizing illegal border crossings, and raising tax on the middle class to pay for universal healthcare – are even to the left of Obama, the “change president”.
As some candidates drag moderates like Biden and Harris well to the left of center, Democrats will lose the center and the independent. Meanwhile, The Donald certainly has reasons to smile. The debates effectively ended the race, he cooed on Twitter. After all, his main rival looked dazed and confused under the lights. And it will help his re-election if Democrats abandoned the winning formula of 2018 mid-terms (focus on local issues) and pandered to the party’s ultra-liberal faction (fight on controversial issues).
With his approval rating in the mid-forties and the economy humming a nice tune, Trump already looks competitive. The Democrats have a huge challenge ahead. If they allowed the primaries to take the party even more to the left in 2019, it will be difficult for the eventual Democratic nominee to revert to the center while campaigning nationally in 2020. To win, turning out the base alone may not be enough.
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