Political observers in Pakistan are concerned about the outcome of elections in India and consequences of a potential NATO exit from Afghanistan. Yet, slow-moving political developments in America also demand a closer look, for what happens in a chaotic DC still affects things here. The Democrats are trying to unseat Trump in 2020 – but it is eighteen months to go and eighteen candidates to choose from.
The Democrats are in visible disarray. The Mueller inquiry, which had hyped up the impression that Trump campaign was in cahoots with the Russians during the 2016 election, has been a letdown for the party’s base. The Democrats regained the House in 2018 midterms, but its leaders are now struggling to keep the majority united, leave alone lay out a strategy for rigorous oversight of the Trump administration.
Amid the infighting and incoherence comes the battle to take on Trump. The eighteen Democrats who have announced a presidential run thus far are drawn from across the age, ethnic, gender and geographic divides. Good, for it reflects America’s diversity. Bad, for it means that the primaries, which commence in February, will be deeply contentious all the way to Democratic Convention in July 2020.
Meanwhile, The Donald, who is sculpting the Grand Old Party in his own image, is a shoo-in for the Republican nomination. It’s partly because he is holding firm the base, which represents about 40 percent of the electorate. And it’s partly because a healing potion for Trump’s divisive nationalism can, in a political sense, come only from a Democrat, not a Republican.
So, who will be the challenger? The latest poll-of-polls by RealClearPolitics, a respected poll aggregator, shows former VP Joe Biden in the lead with 31 percent support among likely voters; at number two is Senator Bernie Sanders with a 22 percent share. Slicing the remaining half of the pie is a number of competitive candidates – most of them are capable of surprising once the debates start in two months.
It will be interesting to see which candidate Democrats field against Trump. With uncles Biden and Bernie the two front-runners, it may appear that candidates’ age and political-insider-credentials do not matter. Pundits also suggest that Democrats need someone who can hold his or her own against the brawling and deflecting Trump. Well, Biden can go toe-to-toe with Trump; and Bernie can stay on message.
However, if campaign messaging ends up having more resonance than experience, do not count out yet the chances of a first millennial presidency, and that, too, coming out from this congested field. Candidates like Pete Buttigieg, a small-city mayor who comes from conservative heartland but embodies millennial aspirations of a changing America, can be the dark horse. Let’s see which way the race goes.
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