KSE-100 bulls have survived their battle against the bears so far. Inflows from Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have provided a much-needed support. So has the promise of Chinese inflow, hopefully offsetting Qatar dollar denial. The mini-budget is being called a respite. Is it really? Or merely a temporary breather thanks to friendlier capital gains regime and abolishment of advance tax?
The proposed custom duty reductions are in non-index-heavy sectors – and as such have little bearing on the market. They are also not in sectors that are likely to significantly boost exports: footwear, furniture, ceramics, sanitary. Really?
Some sectors such as oil & gas, oil marketing, power, and cement may benefit from the abolishment of super tax. But the increase in super tax on banks to a flat rate of 4 percent for FY18-FY21 should more than offset the euphoria once the realisation sets in. Since banking bulls have been expected to lead the battle against the bears, any dent in those front ranks could cause the KSE-100 bull army to disintegrate.
If anything, the mini-budget has uncovered a secret route for the bears to march in and disintegrate the bulls, as did the Persians in the Hollywood movie ‘300’ – sneaking through the secret path to outflank and surround the Spartans. That secret path is the increasing possibility that fiscal deficit will be north of 6.3 percent.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Uncertainty is playing ‘to-go-or-not-to-go’ to the IMF. If they go, the battle between bears and bulls will be resolved by the kind of conditions the IMF would demand; improving Pak-US relations can only do much. If they don’t, then a prolonged macroeconomic uncertainty might eventually fatigue the bulls. Either way, while the bulls may eventually win the long-run war, for now they are probably just writing a heroic epic.
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