Learning the ropes

The year 2018 started with concerns for Pakistan’s political stability. After much ado, the New Year dawns with an eerie kind of political stability spreading across this land. Four months after a controversial election, Imran and Co. look set, holding down the fort in Islamabad. Stumbling its way into 2019, the party of inexperienced but well-meaning individuals is trying to learn the ropes of governance.

However, the PTI’s on-the-job training – which seems more like a state project since the 2013 elections and which does not seem to involve a “say” in foreign policy and national security – may confront some serious challenges this year. As the honeymoon period is over, 2019 will see how far this version of hybrid democracy goes in solving immediate crises and long-term, intractable problems.

On the economic front, the government has no way around wearing the IMF straitjacket. But in attempting to destroy aggregate demand to cool down the twin deficits, the burden of fiscal and monetary adjustments will fall the most on the middle- and low-income families. In its initial years with some fresh political capital on hand, the party can hope to ride out the resulting disenchantment.

But should the oil prices head north again; the party will have a hard time convincing their urban voter base that theirs was the right selection. The double inflation whammy (groceries and petrol spending) may be too difficult to digest for angry urbanites. If one is to mix such economic scenario with hollers of political victimization, the state may soon have a popular anti-government movement coming.

That leads one to the political arena. Alas, the state’s long-time project to marginalize the two mainstream political parties may see itself to completion in 2019. By then, the ‘trial by JIT’ mode of justice will have run its course. But, vigilante justice would have been served to the trespassers by then. As this so-called accountability drive is popular with the party’s base, it will act as political fodder in times of austerity.

But as is the Pakistani way of reacting to major political events, the ongoing high-handedness will likely see a delayed reaction from the aggrieved quarters, their core supporters, and the disenfranchised public at large. Give it time, two to three years. By then, the party better hope to have ridden out the tough economic times that are coming.

Meanwhile, some observers are concerned that federation would be put in danger if the 18th Constitutional Amendment is rolled back or if the provincial share is curtailed in the favour of a strong center. Besides, they fear that a one-party rule is in the offing as elimination of the opposition is underway through lawfare. Let’s see what happens in 2019, to find out whether or not those concerns have weight.