Australia, New Zealand dollar downside on one-year horizon seen limited

Analysts are moderating their bearish outlook on the Australian and New Zealand dollars as the likelihood of stable domestic interest rates for months to come promises relatively high yields in a low-return world. A Reuters poll of 51 analysts saw the Aussie at 75 US cents in one month, two cents higher than in the January poll as the currency rallied past most expectations.
Still, the general expectation was that it would ease over time from $0.7676 currently, reaching $0.7400 in three months and $0.7300 in six months and $0.7200 in one year. The Aussie rose as far as $0.7696 last week, its highest since November, after Australia posted its biggest-ever trade surplus with the promise of more to come. The Antipodean currencies have now recouped nearly all the losses they sustained after the election in November of Donald Trump to US president boosted the US dollar. New Zealand's fat yields could likewise limit losses for the kiwi. A poll of 44 analysts produced a one-month forecast of $0.7100 for the kiwi, compared with $0.7000 in the January poll and $0.7355 currently.