Ukraine's forex reserves to stay below central bank target in 2017

Ukraine's foreign currency reserves will grow to $17.8 billion by the end of 2017 but still fall nearly 20 percent short of the central bank's $21.3 billion target, a Reuters monthly poll of analysts showed on Thursday.
Last year the central bank also failed to replenish its coffers to target levels. Reserves amounted to $15.5 billion at the end of December, in line with a Reuters forecast for 2016 but below the $17.5 billion the central bank had aimed for.
Ukraine needs to boost its reserves in order to cover a widening trade deficit and rising external debt costs. Its external debt bill will increase to $6 billion in 2019 from $2.6 billion this year, mainly due to the start of repayments of Eurobonds restructured in 2015.
Analysts at 15 Ukrainian banks and companies said they did not expect a significant inflow of foreign capital and new loans this year, as an armed conflict with Russian-backed separatists continues while reforms are stalled.
The central bank sees International Monetary Fund loans as the main source for rebuilding reserves that were depleted in 2014-2015 due to capital outflows amid an economic crisis as well the separatist conflict.
But last year Kiev delayed implementing promised reforms and received just one tranche of $1 billion instead of the four instalments scheduled under the $17.5 billion IMF bailout deal.
The current account deficit widened to $3.4 billion from $189 million in 2015 due to rising imports and falling exports and is likely to stay at approximately the same level in 2017, the analysts forecast.
Ukraine's talks with the IMF on its next tranches have halted as the government continues discussion on ways to reduce the state pension fund deficit.
The IMF has advised increasing the retirement age to 63 years from the current 60 years but the government insists such a move - which would be politically unpopular - would not help narrow the gap.
The pension deficit has continued to widen since a 2011 change that required women to work five years longer.