PM at Davos

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif attended the Davos moot, the World Economic Forum, again this year. And not surprisingly one of the speakers at the Forum, Mark Pieth, Swiss anti-corruption expert who resigned from the seven-member Panama Papers Probe together with Nobel laureate Jo Stiglitz, after the Panama government refused to guarantee that the report would be made public stated "The Panama Papers showed the world how the crooks of this world stash away their money."
It is unclear whether the Pakistani Prime Minister is aware of Pieth's speech delivered at the Forum however he is, without a doubt, aware of Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaaf Chairman Imran Khan's remarks with respect to the inappropriateness of his (Prime Minister's) attendance at the Forum when the extent of his involvement in the multi-million dollar assets held out of the country in his three children's names have yet to be determined by the Supreme Court.
The Prime Minister and his considerable entourage's attendance at Davos is at the taxpayers' expense and, therefore, it is legitimate to ask whether the money spent achieved any favourable results for the country. Foreign tours are necessary for the chief executive of any country, and more so for one who continues to hold the Foreign Affairs portfolio, that enable him to engage with other world leaders for the purpose of furthering our foreign relations' objectives - be they geopolitical and/or economic. Today Pakistan continues to be embroiled in serious issues with India ranging from: (i) false accusations of state support of cross border terrorism (though Pakistan's dossier of counter charges against India has yet to create any stir in the international community in spite of its submission to the United Nations chief twice); the Prime Minister met with the newly appointed head of the United Nations at Davos but the UN has not been able to deliver without the international community - read the permanent Security Council members - backing. Nawaz Sharif met with the Swiss President as well, a country which prides itself on its neutrality hence it is unlikely that Pakistan's relations with India or Afghanistan were discussed and reports indicate that the two men did not discuss Swiss disclosure laws with respect to Pakistani nationals' accounts. And lastly, the Prime Minister met with his Norwegian counterpart and though Norway has played a very pivotal role in forging peace deals in trouble spots around the world yet one doubts if Modi's India would consider Norway as a deal broker with Pakistan; (ii) serious water issues with respect to India building dams that would negatively impact on the Western rivers that as per the World Bank brokered Indus Water Treaty are for use by Pakistan (though here too unfortunately Pakistan appears to have not done its homework prior to writing to the World Bank President as no mention was reportedly made of whether the construction of the Indian dam would be tantamount to the upper riparian using more than 20 percent of the water resources that it is allowed under the Treaty); and (iii) the festering Kashmir issue exacerbated by sustained Indian atrocities. Afghanistan on our Eastern border has been accusing Pakistan of supporting/providing sanctuaries to the Afghan Taliban and here too our counter-charge has found little support from the international community with the mantra of 'do more' by the US particularly irksome to successive Pakistani civilian and military leadership.
More importantly however the World Economic Forum presents the opportunity to both the chief executives/federal ministers and senior members of the business community from around the world to interact with each other, form important linkages and last but not least to turn these linkages into concrete contracts that maybe in the form of foreign direct investment/joint ventures and/or higher exports/imports. Needless to add, the recipient country would benefit enormously from such inflows and Prime Minister's objective to try to maximise such linkages may, if translated into concrete projects, benefit Pakistan greatly.
This is the third consecutive year that Mian Nawaz Sharif is attending the Davos summit, he has never attended the forum when he is not the country's chief executive, and yet data uploaded on the State Bank of Pakistan website reveals that he has been singularly unsuccessful in selling Brand Pakistan at Davos or anywhere else. Exports declined from 1.9 billion dollars during February 2013, the last full month of PPP tenure, to 1.86 billion dollars in February 2016 and to 1.84 billion dollars by November 2016. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has risen to one billion dollars recently but reports indicate that this is largely attributable to the purchase of 51 percent shares in Engro Foods Limited, a private company, by Dutch company FrieslandCampina International Holding BV for a reported sum of 446 million dollars - a one off sale by a private party that the government can take little credit for. The Sharif administration thus needs to distinguish between attendance by the Prime Minister, his cabinet and officials of his choosing at the taxpayers' expense, and attendance by the private sector at its own expense to forge ties with the private sector of other countries.
The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), according to government sources, is a game changer and would lead to a massive rise in FDI; however, this would only be possible if China begins to procure from Pakistan or uses Pakistani labour - neither of which appears to be on the cards as yet. A more successful approach would have entailed amending some flawed policies including reducing the rupee overvaluation, making the tax structure more equitable and less anomalous between local productive units and foreign units under the CPEC and a more balanced approach with respect to deficit reduction versus growth. Be that as it may, the future of our development is with China and bilateral deals are made either in Islamabad or Beijing not Davos. There was also no record of a meeting between Xi Jinping and the Prime Minister in Davos.
What is even more ironical is that Mian Nawaz Sharif, a long time proponent of free trade and globalisation, seemed unaware of recent world events which challenge these views and the very raison d'etre of the Forum which, traditionally, supports free trade, globalisation and transparency. Joe Miller of the BBC referred to WEF as 'the annual pilgrimage of the so-called global elite, during which they underline the urgency of tackling climate change to the hum of private jet traffic, pledge to alleviate food poverty while snacking on caviar canapes, and commit to reducing inequality while being waited on hand and foot by an army of service staff at exclusive dinner parties." This contradiction has always distinguished not only the rich from the private sector but also elected representatives living it off at the taxpayers' expense from the army of poor in Pakistan and would therefore hardly raise any eyebrows.
However Miller further writes that "the WEF's annual Global Risks Report, in which it tries to predict future crises, made little mention of anti-establishment forces... European leaders seemed confident that their institutions would survive the challenges posed by an influx of refugees, attacks on capital cities and rising nationalist sentiment." And "much is being made of the fact that Xi Jinping is to become the first Chinese President to attend the WEF....and that Davos is welcoming a bigger trade delegation from the country than ever before - a signal, perhaps that a more inward looking US leaves a void for other global powers to fill." In short, Western perceptions as reflected by recent election results as well as referendum (on Brexit) shows a world no longer enamoured of globalisation and immigration; and, instead, there has been a rise in nationalist sentiments in which case WEF is hardly a forum where a heavily indebted developing country's chief executive would succeed in making a sale.
One would however urge the Prime Minister to consider at least three of the eight leadership lessons prominently displayed on the WEF website: (i) the French phrase "déformation professionnelle" may be taken into consideration which cautions the leader to desist from allowing the office he holds to subtly warp his judgement so that he only sees things from one perspective; (ii) desist from believing his own propaganda; and (iii) know when to step down, an impossibility in Pakistan politics, hence my amendment maybe considered more appropriate, namely step down from flawed policies. So far the incumbent Prime Minister, like his predecessors, has not exhibited any tendency to learn any of these three leadership lessons.
Next week's article would look at the Prime Minister's statements to the media and meetings with chief executive officers of prominent international companies as noted by the government run news agency.