IGC raises grains crop outlook, stocks to climb

The International Grains Council on Thursday raised its forecast for the global grains crop in 2016/17 from an already record level, partly driven by improved outlooks for China's corn crop and wheat production in Australia. Total production on grains in 2016/17 was seen climbing to 2.094 billion tonnes, up 10 million tonnes from its previous projection issued in November and 4 percent above the prior season's 2.005 billion.
"The resulting rise in world supplies is largely channelled to an increased projection for consumption," the IGC said in a report, forecasting that global grains consumption would rise by 4 percent to 2.062 billion tonnes.
Global stocks at the end of the 2016/17 season were forecast to total 507 million tonnes, up from a previous forecast of 504 million and a year-earlier total of 475 million.
The IGC noted end-season grain stocks were seen rising by almost 50 percent from the recent low of 2012/13.
World corn production in 2016/17 was upwardly revised by 3 million tonnes to a record 1.045 billion tonnes,
China, the world's second-largest corn producer, was estimated to have a crop of 219.6 million tonnes, up from a previous forecast of 217.0 million but still below the prior season's 224.6 million.
World wheat production in 2016/17 was put at 752 million tonnes, up from a previous forecast of 749 million and the prior season's 736 million.
The largest upward revision was for Australia where a crop of 33.5 million tonnes was forecast, up from a previous estimate of 28.3 million and last season's 24.2 million.
Wheat crops in Argentina, the European Union and Canada were also upwardly revised, helping to more than offset a sharp cut in the outlook for India to 86.0 million tonnes from a previous forecast of 93.5 million.
The IGC said prospects for 2017/18 winter wheat remained broadly favourable across the northern Hemisphere.
"Assuming a marginal decline in harvested area, and with yields dropping back closer to average, total production is tentatively projected at 735 million tonnes, down by two percent, year-on-year," the IGC said.
Global soybean production in 2016/17 was seen at 334 million tonnes, down from a previous projection of 336 million but still a record high.
"In addition to a bumper US harvest, production in Brazil is anticipated at a new peak, more than offsetting declines in other countries, notably Argentina," the IGC said.