So, we have started talking about 4th industrial age. Stephen Hawking, Bill Gates and Elon Musk are scared of (smart) artificial intelligence robots (thinking machines) that can create algorithm according to their need, and can take over skilled jobs. "Its defining feature would be that new-age machines will be thinking as well as doing, sensing as well as sifting, adapting as well as enacting" (Andrew G Haldane, Chief Economist, Bank of England).
Besides artificial intelligence, 3D printer also has entered into industrial and commercial arena. 3D printer is being said to unfold a new and unprecedented manufacturing revolution across the world as no factories would be needed to manufacture some of customised goods of your need and choice. It will create new jobs even in the US; it is hoped by the US economists baffled by their economic imbroglio. "Three dimensional bio-printing is being applied to tissue engineering and regenerative medicine as a manufacturing tool to produce 3D tissues and organs suitable for transplantation".
Sensors, cloud computing, virtual reality, commercial drones and internet of things (IoT) are going to revolutionise our communication, control and analytical tools/systems at an exponential speed. "By 2016 Gartner predicts 6.4 billion devices will be connected to the internet - and 5.5 million new 'things' will join them each day". Mobile-cellular telephone subscriptions will increase to 7.085 billion by end 2015.
Software, apps, tabs and smart gadgets including smart phones with their easy accessibility and increasing functional capacity are going to change day to day life, work patterns and level of productivity. I expect before end of 2017, more than 60% of our transactions and monitoring will be done with the help of apps. Apps besides other things are already proving to be a great tool for universalization of education.
High quality education is now getting global through MOOC, apps, tabs, smart phones and other ICT tools. Educational resources of Khanacademy could be translated or dubbed in any language. I have seen Urdu version of Khanacademy and I found it amazing tool for education. And, Khanacademy caters to all levels of students from primary to university.
Robots and super computers in next decade or so will help solve many problems from disease to food shortage to housing scarcity etc. IBM's Dr Watson- a supercomputer is going to prove world's best diagnostic tool. It has already proved its worth. Nanotechnology is also revolutionizing many procedures and mechanisms in the fields of medicine, agriculture, computers and electronics.
Greg Wyler, Richard Branson, Dr Paul E. Jacobs, Thomas Enders and Sunil Bharti Mittal- all world famous corporate celebrities through constellation of their 720 satellites (http://www. oneweb.world/); Mark Zuckerberg through his drones and many others including google are going to connect whole world through high-speed internet much before 2020.
As regards revolution in sphere of energy, Powerwall and Powerpack batteries of Tesla and such other entrepreneurs have already started solving issue of storage of energy. Beside its car and home batteries, Tesla announced along with Gaelectric of Ireland in May, 2015 to introduce one MW battery in 2016 in Ireland but, to our great surprise, Tesla has already installed its One MW battery in California for Cargill-a beef processing plant during first half of 2015.
Solar and wind energy are going to be common energy suppliers. What is more interesting that solar can be installed anywhere where there is sun and it does not need long transmission lines. What one MW battery energized with renewables will do in the field of energy needs no elaboration. So, world has started witnessing new industrial age. What type of society will evolve in the wake of this new phase of industrial revolution requires some brainstorming.
But there is a glaring paradox? Developed world was almost a century ahead of poor/backward/developing countries till commencement of globalization of KRID (Knowledge, Research, Innovations and Development) in late 80s' and early 90s', and is still much ahead of them exceptions like China apart. But lo and behold, world by now is witnessing two odd but prominent economic trends. On the one hand, majority of developed countries including Japan, Western Europe and USA are facing one or other type of economic growth and debt crisis whereas developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America in general though with some hiccups are on the path of continuous progress.
China is not an exception to this phenomenon rather it is rising star of new horizon. China has risen from low levels of productivity and poverty to the status of No 1 economy of the world in purchasing power parity terms. Is there any common determinant or phenomenon behind these two opposite trends? Yes, there is one.
Sci-tech-human power complex which started as globalization of knowledge, research, innovation and development since late 1980s and early 1990s is now reshaping whole world. By now, sci-tech and power of human mind - a new economic factor have merged together to become an objective powerful force and both are not only co-evolving but reinforcing each other.
Then what's the problem with mainstream developed world economists? Why they are unable to understand what is happening with them and what is the determinant of multifaceted development in previously poor/backward countries? Who is the culprit for this confusion?
In general, I think two things are responsible for prejudiced and myopic economic analysis of mainstream economists and policymakers. One is traditional stereotype economic theories being taught even in world famous economic schools. They teach many obsolete concepts (http://ineteconomics.org/) but which discomforts me much is 'Ceteris paribus' which has already been discounted by science and technology. Science and technology has elevated itself from its status of enabler to the position of determinant and not counting its impact renders analyses obsolete.
Second factor being almost completely ignored by mainstream economists and policymakers is 'Human Power'. One must not confuse educated/skilled human resource with concept of 'Human Power'. Though, former is component of the later. By now, sci-tech besides being enabler is also empowering human-being across the globe to develop its brain power ie, 'Human Power'. Hence the term 'sci-tech-human power complex.'
First time ever in the history of human being, majority of populace is going to get elevated from animal like status to real human level. Nobody disagrees that it is brain that differentiates the two species- human being and animal- qualitatively from each other. It is the main factor/tool of elevation of human being but unfortunately it was never developed (exceptions apart) and empowered as is being done now.
Science and technology particularly after opening up of digital technology and globalization of KRID as discussed above, started empowerment of brain at increasing scale across the world leading to development of 'Human Power. This 'Human Power' in turn as a corollary started boosting the process of deepening and expansion of the growth of science and technology. Hence, the co-evolvement of Sci-tech and Human power.
And, so has emerged a most powerful phenomenon of 'Sci-Tech-Human Power complex' which is going to shape the future of every aspect of life including economy and society across the globe. Both are complementing and fortifying each other and are expanding frontiers of innovations and inventions unmeasurably as was shown in the opening paragraphs. There are no bounds and limits. "Sci-tech and human power complex" is an objective force powered by self-propulsion and is the greatest force human history has ever experienced.
This new objective phenomenon explains the reason for relative stagnation of developed world (it will be further elaborated in next article) and rise of developing/poor world. Besides, this phenomenon is paving way for human civilisation to enter into its 3rd and hitherto highest phase where ignorance, inequality and poverty will decrease dramatically. It could safely be said that human being shall be living in a very different and qualitatively better world by 2025-30.
Although, main driver of the change is 'sci-tech-human power complex', however, there is one more factor playing very critical role in gearing up the process of change. This factor is China. How? China with its current USD 35.255 trillion foreign exchange reserves (USD 2262 million only in December 1980) is understandably desperate to invest in other countries (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-01-14/china-to-use-forex-reserves-to-finance-overseas-investment-deals). Why?
Because economic managers of China reckon that unless whole world particularly developing countries do not grow, growth of its own economy would not be sustainable. Here lies the difference between economic philosophy and management of developed world and China. Its priority to invest in infrastructure of other countries also makes its economic vision fundamentally different from west and their allies. BRICS bank, AIIB, one belt and one road including Silk Road, marine Silk Road and Asian Highway project, export of its flagship technology of train and its role in increasing accessibility to latest technology are worth mentioning while talking about future prospects of human civilisation.
It is not that difficult to explain as to why sci-tech-human power complex phenomenon is hurting developed world while advancing the poor and developing world. Answer is simple. Developed world among other things including its development of science and technology also thrived on backwardness of non-developed world. They used to have monopoly on sci-tech, financial resources and skill. They used to import raw material from backward countries at the price determined by their corporations and would sell selected finished products to them at price with premium. Naked capitalism used to flourish in environment of inequality.
Not only sci-tech-human power complex but also countries like China are depriving developed world of its previous 'privileged' position, hence the crisis.
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