Till the start of this year, there was a lot of buzz and hope associated with the repeated rounds of China FTA negotiations. There was a general expectation of unilateral concessions from China in the face of the mounting trade deficit.
Along with China FTA, there were talks about agreements with Tunisia, Iran, Turkey and Vietnam, to name a few. Trade agreements with at least 6 countries were in the pipeline. Between political shenanigans and the realisation that status quo may be the best deal to be had under the current scenario of negotiations regarding Pak-China FTA; talks about other trade agreements were temporarily silenced. (Read “Pak-China FTA – the swinging pendulum”, published on April 6, 2018). Currently, the continuation of the China FTA negotiations awaits the mandate from the incoming government, with no date set for commencement.
On the other hand, the transition into the next round of government seems to have rekindled the desire of pursuing other trade agreements as a means to boost exports. If so, then an FTA with Thailand maybe the first such trade agreement to be inked in “Naya Pakistan”.
The two countries are expected to present completed final lists of productions for concessions for negotiation rounds that will start mid-September. This would be the tenth round of FTA negotiations held by Pakistan and Thailand. The intention is to finalize the FTA by the end of this calendar year.
Pak-Thai bilateral stood at $1.12 billion for FY18. Though it is skewed in favour of Thailand with imports from the country amounting to $1.11 billion, it is expected that better processed and packaged fruit and sea food could lessen the differential of over $1 billion of trade deficit. Other potential exports are resource-based goods such as yarn, fiber and meat whereas imports are of value-added products such as rubbers and polymers.
Whether “tabdeeli” has indeed seeped through into Pakistan’s negotiations skill is a question only time will tell. Past government’s negotiators have not fared too well with limited access of Pakistan’s top exports given in exchange for virtually unfettered ingress to the nation’s market.
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